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what am i missing?

Posted By: Chase
Date: Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 8:11 p.m.

In Response To: what am i missing? (Stick)

As others have already mentioned but not specified or been correct with their figures, your opponent's raw take point at this score is higher than normal money scores

Since I was the only one who posted numbers before you, I gather the "not correct" comment is directed at me. My estimates of wins and gammons may be off, but I'm pretty sure my theory is correct. At 3a3a, the dead and live take points are 30 and 23%, respectively. Assuming 70% efficiency on the recube, the take point ends up right around 25% for a "normal" position, which is just what I said. (For money, it's around 22%.) I then adjusted for gammons, using a gammon value of .5, which is also correct. The confusion might be due to my building recube vig in on the front end instead of leaving it for last. I find it easier that way, but it works out the same. If I judge that the vig is going to be significantly higher or lower for the position than the "normal" 70%, I nudge the final number up or down a bit accordingly.

Messages In This Thread

• what am i missing?
  DanielP -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 11:20 a.m.
  • what am i missing?
    Chase -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 12:11 p.m.
  • what am i missing?
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 3:09 p.m.
  • what am i missing?
    Stick -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 5:45 p.m.
    • what am i missing?
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 6:49 p.m.
      • what am i missing?
        Stick -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 6:55 p.m.
    • what am i missing?
      Chase -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 8:11 p.m.
      • what am i missing?
        Stick -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 8:21 p.m.
        • what am i missing?
          Chase -- Thursday, 13 May 2010, at 8:24 p.m.