| |
|---|---|
| 65R-43 | |
Money
Snowie .. [Z S19 U21 D27 $72 %85 W94] 5k
GnuBG .. [Z S14 D18 U34] 15k 5kU
XG 3-ply [Z D19 S20 U43] 31k
Other scores
d[Z S4 D8 U16] 10k 5kDU
s[Z S13 U13 D24] 5k
g[D Z12] 5k
Key: Z = reverse split (24/21 13/9), S = Split (24/20 13/10), D = Down (13/10 13/9), U = Up (24/21 24/20), $ = Slot (13/9 8/5), % = alt-slot (13/10 8/4), W = Wild (24/20 8/5). Error sizes are in thousandths.
Before brackets, "d" = DMP, "s" = GS, or "g" = GG, else assume money. After brackets is the number of trials (in thousands, rounded down). For example, "g[D Z12] 5k" means that at GG (gammon go), D is best and Z is -.012 after 5000+ trials.
What is the correct move?
Theorectically, Z.
What did Joe play?
Don't know, don't care. I've seen a lot of experts (mis-)play S here, though.
What should have Joe played?
Why should Joe have played it?
I suppose what you're driving at is that based on an earlier Joe/Ray incident, Joe will manage to play twice in a row. In that case, I think his best play is $ (Slot, 13/9 8/5), with Matt's suggestion of S (Split, 24/20 13/10) and Bob's suggestion of W (Wild, 24/20 8/5) also being strong candidates. As normal second roll plays, they're about -.019, -.072 and -.094, as listed above.
To make $ a worthwhile gambit, he'd have to be awfully sure of being able to play again, because $ + play again is only slightly better than S, D or Z + play again. If he's only mostly sure, he should just play Z.
The worst play is H (Hit, 8/1*). It would be difficult to build a case for being on roll.
Joking aside, I should also make clear that if Joe got away with playing twice after opening 65R before, I do not believe it was intentional.
On a scale from 1-10 with 10 being the highest, how big of a bastard am I?
I don't know much about your family history, but we've all been the brunt of jokes. My plan is to remain as invisible as possible so I'm not the next target :)
Nack