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Match Winning Chances per Elo formula

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Saturday, 15 May 2010, at 6:37 a.m.

In Response To: Match Winning Chances per Elo formula (Henrik Bukkjaer)

If I recall correct, it scales "better" with the match lenghts, so a x% edge in DMP becomes a little bigger in the long match, than the SQRT(MatchLength) portion of the FIBS ELO calculation above.

I also recall that the "fish" tables have this feature. If it were true, though, why is it that rating boosters prefer one pointers, instead of long matches, against weak opponents? I have always been under the impression that empirical evidence speaks for one pointers containing more skill than the FIBS formula suggests. Maybe it turns around at very large match lengths, which are not played often enough to provide empirical evidence for casual observers.

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