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Match Winning Chances per Elo formula

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Saturday, 15 May 2010, at 8:37 a.m.

In Response To: Match Winning Chances per Elo formula (Henrik Bukkjaer)

The speed argument is irrelevant once the target rating is achieved and needs only be maintained. I'm not sure if it's relevant before that, because the stake is scaled down for one pointers, and they can't be shortened with cube turns.

The supply argument is certainly valid. But don't the "fish"-table predictions go into the same direction (viz. underestimating skill content of one pointers in comparison with the FIBS formula) even for very short matches?

To approach this from another side: In the other thread, we kind of agreed on a 5.5 Snowie ER difference as an equivalent for 200 Elo points (75% MWC) in 25-point-matches. We know that Snowie ER's look much more friendly in one-pointers; let's say 5.5 in long matches is equivalent to 2.7 in one pointers. Is that too generous?

What is the average number of moves in a one point match? I guess it's not less than 15 per side. With an ER difference of 2.7, your one pointer MWC should be no less than 100%*(0.5+2*15*0.0027)=58.1%, corresponding to no less than 280 Elo points difference.

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