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Rollout: What do I concede here?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 16 May 2010, at 12:15 a.m.

In Response To: What do I concede here? (Timothy Chow)

OTB I decided to give up the 24-point guard with 24/21 7/2. This would have been right if White's 3 point had been filled in; then the 24-point guard would not have been guarding much—in fact, it would have been in some danger of being attacked—and leaving a midpoint blot would have been more dangerous. Here, though, the 24-point guard is vital and the midpoint blot is not so bad.

gnubg	98
tchow	137
Position ID: jj0PBgDatsAAIw Match ID: UYkVADAACAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/10 7/2	-0.292
			0.341 0.058 0.002 - 0.659 0.128 0.003 -0.388 -0.292 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852276072 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/5	-0.338 ( -0.046)
			0.325 0.054 0.002 - 0.675 0.140 0.004 -0.438 -0.338 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852276072 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/8 7/4	-0.341 ( -0.049)
			0.320 0.054 0.002 - 0.680 0.141 0.004 -0.448 -0.341 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852276072 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/10 13/8	-0.347 ( -0.054)
			0.313 0.048 0.001 - 0.687 0.102 0.003 -0.430 -0.347 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852276072 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	24/16	-0.382 ( -0.090)
			0.286 0.039 0.001 - 0.714 0.072 0.002 -0.463 -0.382 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852276072 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	R	24/21 7/2	-0.391 ( -0.098)
			0.281 0.036 0.001 - 0.719 0.059 0.000 -0.460 -0.391 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852276072 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

For comparison, here is a 4-ply evaluation of the variant position I mentioned above.

gnubg	90
tchow	137
Position ID: bnYOBgDatsAAIw Match ID: UYkVADAACAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	4	24/21 7/2	-0.312
			0.310 0.040 0.000 - 0.690 0.071 0.001
	2	4	13/10 7/2	-0.417 ( -0.106)
			0.308 0.048 0.001 - 0.692 0.179 0.005
	3	4	24/16	-0.429 ( -0.118)
			0.282 0.034 0.000 - 0.718 0.121 0.003

Messages In This Thread

• What do I concede here?
  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 14 May 2010, at 10:40 p.m.
  • What do I concede here?
    Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 15 May 2010, at 1:29 a.m.
  • What do I concede here?
    Neil Robins -- Saturday, 15 May 2010, at 1:33 a.m.
  • Rollout: What do I concede here?
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 16 May 2010, at 12:15 a.m.