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Match Winning Chances per Elo formula
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Match Winning Chances per Elo formula (Perry Gartner)
Date: Sunday, 16 May 2010, at 3:17 a.m.
Perry,
I don't think I can answer your questions well. My best guess is that Danish intermediates and American intermediates would feel equally comfortable in the Intermediate flight of a tournament in the others' nation. But although I've noted that several ABT tournaments have lately enjoyed higher numbers of participants in their Intermediate flights, I have little idea how well they play. As for Denmark, I last attended a DBgF tournament in 2003, maybe 2002.
The flavor of the DBgF tournament schedule has changed quite a bit since then. Some recent tournaments have offered a B flight with no DBgF membership requirement and no rating restriction, i.e., not just for beginners, or offered a B flight with no rating requirement but a cap on "TMP" experience points. A recent development is that several tournaments spread competition over some weeks or months of play. The tournament schedule is quite full, but I was surprised to discover how few tournaments in this past year even had a B-flight, and at how many of the longstanding 2-day tournaments that I remember have disappeared from the calendar.
Perhaps something can be gleaned from the DBgF rating list, DBgF tournament restrictions, and tournament participation, but ... not much, I think.
Interestingly, the Nordic Open this year with four flights -- Open, Advanced, Intermediate and Beginner -- had an explicit rating restriction only for the Beginner flight. The Beginner flight restriction was rating under 1020 and TMP under 2000. For comparison, 1000 is the nominal middle of the DBgF rating list. In past years, the Nordic had rating requirements for the Advanced and Intermediate flights as well, but they were very generous. as I recall, requiring only players in the top 10% or even 5% of the DBgF ranking list to play in the Open flight.
Browsing through recent DBgF tournament announcements, I noted only two tournaments with non-open flights with a ratings requirement. In one the requirement was under 1100, and in the other under 1050.
Some statistics from the DBgF rating list for what that may be worth:
Current members = 742 Highest rating = 1296 90th percentile = 1165 72nd percentile = 1100 Median rating = 1025 (i.e., 25 points rating inflation) Lowest rating = 692 Having generated those numbers and browsed through the names on the rating list, I'm at a loss to know how well current ratings reflect skill. DBgF has lost some 400 members since the early 2000's, many of them top notch players. On the other hand, there are players on the list who are competitive international open level players ranked 200th, and lower. The list includes five World Championship finalists, ranked 13th, 75th, 82nd, 83rd and 261st.
I'll hazard a guess that there are perhaps 100 Danish players who, if they all showed up at an ABT tournament and played in the open flight, would fit the curve. But judging from attendance records, most of them haven't been attending many Danish tournaments lately.
Danish backgammon tournaments, January 2009 to May 2010
Tournament flights participants Danish Doubles Championship 1 43 pairs Vintercup 2010 1 25 Nordic Open 2010 4 414 (Open 131, Adv. 98, Int. 93, Beg. 92) TOTO Cup 2010 1 23 Danish Team Championship 2009/10 several 77 teams, 631 players Championship League Doubles 2009/10 1 16 teams Players Choice Open 2010 1 20 Hajfri Hygge-Cup 2010 2 24 (16 in flight for TMP<500, 8 in flight for rating<1050 Svendborg Juleturnering 2009 1 49 Copenhagen Christmas Tournament 2009 1 116 High Q Juleturnering 2009 1 31 Danish Championship 2009 1 133 Sunday Shootout 2009 1 57 Danish DMP Championship 2009 1 23 Copenhagen League Singles 2009 1 16 UEFA Cup 2009 1 42 Online Champions League 2009 1 24 Sommer Cup 2009 1 25 Chang Open 2009 1 30 Backgammon Champions League 2009 1 16 Summer Cup East 2009 2 55 (Championship 27, Intermediate 28) Danish Mixed Doubles Championship 2009 1 25 pairs Prime Time Open 2009 2 46 (A-flight 31, B-flight 15) Svendborg Open 2009 2 55 (A-flight 50, Beg. 5) RPC Mermain Mini Open 2009 1 32 Pokalpot 2009 1 30 Team Trophy Tournament 2009 1 57 teams Viborg Open 2 35 (A-flight 26, B-flight 9) Københavns Åbne Forårsturnering 2009 1 31 Hatten Cup 2009 2 77 (Open 59, Beginner 17) Nordic Open 2009 4 274 (Open 97, Int. 73, Beg. 52, Nov. 52) TOTO Cup 2009 1 32 Vintercup 2009 1 24 TV 2 Backgammon Cup 1 106 Lødigt Lavtakst Lir 1 16 Fyn Open Doubles Championship 1 21 pairs Formandens Fødselsdagsturnering 1 32
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