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OLM Sa 05/15/10

Posted By: Fabrice Liardet
Date: Sunday, 16 May 2010, at 4:54 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 05/15/10 (Jason Lee)

I often get those kinds of decisions wrong, so I will try to compute that one a little. Staying back gives away 1/36 more shots, but obtains 63 as an additional blotting number : 22/1296 shots for us. So there is a 14/1296 net loss in shots when staying back, and our shots are worth a little more since our board is closed. Let's say that the difference in shots is 1% GWC in favor of 16/15 16/10.

On the other hand, White's non-hitting rolls will amount to approximatively one pip less if we leave a hitting 4 instead of a hitting 3. One pip in an even race must be more than 1%. So 16/9.

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