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OLM Tu 05/18/10

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 18 May 2010, at 3:06 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Tu 05/18/10 (Jason Lee)

I recently had this position but with Blue having a (2, 1, 2, 1) distribution listing from the ace-point up. That was a razor-thin drop at 25-away/25-away. Here we have an extra checker off but two extra pips. The key question seems to be whether the chances of doublets winning for us has gone up or down. Looks to me like they've gone down; the single checker off might help us more if we were ahead since it would guard against an "ordinary" miss, but doesn't seem to help us as far as getting three checkers off with doublets.

Pass.

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