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Rollout

Posted By: Steve Mellen
Date: Wednesday, 19 May 2010, at 2:06 a.m.

In Response To: Real Choices (Steve Mellen)

The score (after 3 games) is: LDC_John1956 3, fnurt 2 (match to 7 points)

Move number 33: fnurt to play 63

LDC_John1956	97
fnurt	97
Position ID: ZvsyAALZM2MDAA Match ID: UQnvADAAEAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	12/6 4/1	+0.611
			0.599 0.024 0.000 - 0.401 0.028 0.000 +0.199 +0.611 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852749968 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
			Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
•	2	R	11/5* 8/5	+0.515 ( -0.096)
			0.660 0.075 0.002 - 0.340 0.109 0.008 +0.275 +0.515 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852749968 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
			Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
	3	R	11/5* 4/1	+0.324 ( -0.288)
			0.609 0.067 0.001 - 0.391 0.149 0.009 +0.091 +0.324 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852749968 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
			Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
	4	0	12/3	+0.421 ( -0.191)
			0.554 0.016 0.000 - 0.446 0.021 0.000
	5	0	12/9 12/6	+0.151 ( -0.460)
			0.461 0.022 0.000 - 0.539 0.048 0.001

Cube access seems to be the key here. To confirm, let's take a look at the same position with the opponent holding the cube.

LDC_John1956	97
fnurt	97
Position ID: ZvsyAALZM2MDAA Match ID: QQnvADAAEAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	11/5* 8/5	+0.232
			0.672 0.075 0.002 - 0.328 0.104 0.007 +0.303 +0.232 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852749968 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
			Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
	2	R	12/6 4/1	+0.101 ( -0.131)
			0.615 0.021 0.001 - 0.385 0.022 0.000 +0.230 +0.101 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852749968 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
			Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
	3	R	11/5* 4/1	+0.070 ( -0.162)
			0.634 0.064 0.001 - 0.366 0.143 0.009 +0.148 +0.070 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.004 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852749968 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
			Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
	4	0	12/3	-0.091 ( -0.323)
			0.554 0.016 0.000 - 0.446 0.021 0.000
	5	0	12/9 12/6	-0.329 ( -0.561)
			0.461 0.022 0.000 - 0.539 0.048 0.001

Interestingly, the play that cleans up easiest (11/5* 4/1) comes in third even without cube access. The residual value of having that enemy checker trapped behind the best 4-point board seems to be worth too much.

Messages In This Thread

• Real Choices
  Steve Mellen -- Monday, 17 May 2010, at 4:25 a.m.
  • Real Choices
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 17 May 2010, at 12:04 p.m.
    • Real Choices
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Monday, 17 May 2010, at 12:33 p.m.
  • Real Choices
    Ian Shaw -- Monday, 17 May 2010, at 1:25 p.m.
  • Real Choices
    misja -- Monday, 17 May 2010, at 1:45 p.m.
  • Real Choices
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 18 May 2010, at 11:13 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Steve Mellen -- Wednesday, 19 May 2010, at 2:06 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 19 May 2010, at 2:12 a.m.
      • Rollout
        Steve Mellen -- Wednesday, 19 May 2010, at 3:53 a.m.
        • Rollout - changing settings in Gnubg
          Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 2:32 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 19 May 2010, at 4:18 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 19 May 2010, at 8:14 p.m.
      • Rollout
        Steve Mellen -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 1:42 a.m.
    • 0-ply ?
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:07 a.m.
  • All Rollouts
    Stick -- Wednesday, 19 May 2010, at 4:56 a.m.
    • All Rollouts
      Steve Mellen -- Wednesday, 19 May 2010, at 5:03 a.m.
      • All Rollouts
        Stick -- Wednesday, 19 May 2010, at 5:36 a.m.