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BGonline.org Forums
US Open Conso Finals recube decision
Posted By: Stick In Response To: US Open Conso Finals recube decision (asasan)
Date: Wednesday, 19 May 2010, at 8:33 p.m.
Overall the strategy is sound how you present it but in execution there are a lot of questions that should be answered. The first is what is the difference in elo or in error rate of the players at hand? I know roughly what Neil plays, do you have a ballpark figure for what his opponent plays on average?
when you are about 2 to 1 favorite
You said 'about' so I don't know how far that stretches but I'm not even sure it's close to a 2-1 favorite in the position at hand. Also, remember, when the bot spits out these magical number that's a 2-1 favorite iff the bot is playing it out. I would expect Neil from this position to make roughly 0 mistakes playing it out while I would expect, especially given how weak you imply his opponent is, to make a few.
Any frequent visitor of bgonline forum reading this thread would probably run the analysis, gaze at the fantastically produced numbers, accurate and fast, then search for all the clever reasons for agreeing with the results and even offer a semi-articulate blurb
I would expect this from no one. It can be witnessed time & time again where the frequent visitors get problems wrong, use illogical logic, etc... I think the forums would be quite boring if people did what you suggest they are doing.
What if the holder of the 4 cube is a huge underdog who comes in with almost no expectation to win?
So this huge underdog who came in with no real hope or prayer of winning fought his way through the entire consolation to make the finals and is now leading 2-0 in the match with a firm grip on a 4 cube and he's hopeless? Again, depending on the players, the dynamics of the position, etc... I agree with the theory you put forth but it has to be weighed carefully. I find weaker players trying to hand the match to the stronger player too often in cases like this.
An example from the Nordic Open main event. I was playing a Dane who used to play a lot of backgammon but has since turned to poker and hardly ever plays bg any more. Not once a week, not once a month, rarely. I played him a couple matches at his house before the tournament and you could tell he was rusty but you could also tell he was at least a decent player. Wouldn't you know it I draw him in the main the next day.
We were a couple of games in, he was holding a 2 cube and I had borne off 12 checkers and he had one of mine in the air and a shot at the other checkers which were forced to split on the ace and deuce points. He's barely a favorite in the game at this point and he redoubles me saying "Well Stick, I know you're better than me and my best chance to win is to gamble." (paraphrased) It's true I'm better than him, but not by an overwhelming amount. Up to that point in the match he had been playing solid backgammon and I would have rather drawn someone else. I told him at the time I wasn't sure if I was even outplaying him in the match but I was now! These kinds of 'gifts' are double-edged and one should be weary of jacking up the cube blindly.
Stick
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