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Prime v. prime

Posted By: Dorn Bishop
Date: Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:27 p.m.

In Response To: Prime v. prime (joe freedman)

I think this is a very poor double at 2-away, 3-away. Why commit gammon-cide when there is no need to?

Chuck Bower wrote an excellent article for Chicago Point about 10 years ago that convincingly argued that, unless the gammon rate for a position is significantly below average from the starting position, it is virtually never right for the leader to double at this match score. Here, the gammon rate looks to be much higher than normal. So I believe that White is losing match equity by doubling, and maybe quite a lot of match equity.

As for the take, blue has fair timing, structure, outfield coverage, a half-made 5 prime, and an anchor if all else fails. Taken together, it looks like blue can squeeze out at least 25% cubeless wins from here.

ND/T.

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