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Prime v. prime --roll out

Posted By: joe freedman
Date: Friday, 21 May 2010, at 11:42 a.m.

In Response To: Prime v. prime (joe freedman)

This random player passed. But after completing about 54 manual rollouts playing the strong side against GNU and XG it still seems like a pass. I'm winning about 82% of the games (using truncation when it turns into an ace pt game, as it almost always does). Maybe 54 games is not enough, but I can't believe that passing is such a huge error.

One odd feature is that XG does not automatically redouble to 4. Is that because it hopes to double me out at some point? It will win more games that way, as my take pt. is ~31 -- but then it does not win the match. Or maybe induce an incorrect drop? GNU redoubles immediately.

	is ZurichMint score: 5 pip: 116 7 point match pip: 142 score: 4 is blotto
XGID=-a-B-CBBA---bC---bbbbbb-B-:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	73.39% (G: 24.56% B: 7.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	26.61% (G: 3.90% B: 0.41%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.04% (G: 33.12% B: 10.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.96% (G: 4.79% B: 0.53%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.894
Double:	+1.358
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.789
Double/Take:	+0.766 (-0.023)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.211)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.019 (+0.770...+0.808)
Confidence Double:	± 0.032 (+0.734...+0.799)
Double Decision confidence:	88.1%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 42 minutes 57 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: eXtremeGammon

Messages In This Thread

• Prime v. prime
  joe freedman -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 2:23 a.m.
  • Prime v. prime
    nori -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:16 a.m.
  • Prime v. prime
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:25 a.m.
  • Prime v. prime
    lenny -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:26 a.m.
  • Prime v. prime
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 7:14 a.m.
  • Prime v. prime
    Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 7:18 a.m.
  • Prime v. prime
    misja -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 7:50 a.m.
  • Prime v. prime
    Dorn Bishop -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 6:27 p.m.
    • Prime v. prime
      Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 8:59 p.m.
      • Prime v. prime
        Dorn Bishop -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 12:05 a.m.
        • Prime v. prime
          Chuck Bower -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 12:44 a.m.
    • Prime v. prime
      Stick -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 9:31 p.m.
      • Prime v. prime
        Dorn Bishop -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 12:31 a.m.
        • Prime v. prime
          Timothy Chow -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 12:42 a.m.
  • Prime v. prime --roll out
    joe freedman -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 11:42 a.m.
    • Prime v. prime --roll out
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 12:00 p.m.
    • Prime v. prime --roll out
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 2:07 p.m.
      • Prime v. prime --roll out
        joe freedman -- Saturday, 22 May 2010, at 3:29 a.m.
        • Prime v. prime --roll out
          Neil Robins -- Saturday, 22 May 2010, at 3:39 p.m.
    • Prime v. prime --roll out
      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 2:19 p.m.
    • Prime v. prime --roll out
      Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 22 May 2010, at 4:13 p.m.