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BGonline.org Forums
Prime v. prime --roll out
Posted By: joe freedman In Response To: Prime v. prime (joe freedman)
Date: Friday, 21 May 2010, at 11:42 a.m.
This random player passed. But after completing about 54 manual rollouts playing the strong side against GNU and XG it still seems like a pass. I'm winning about 82% of the games (using truncation when it turns into an ace pt game, as it almost always does). Maybe 54 games is not enough, but I can't believe that passing is such a huge error.
One odd feature is that XG does not automatically redouble to 4. Is that because it hopes to double me out at some point? It will win more games that way, as my take pt. is ~31 -- but then it does not win the match. Or maybe induce an incorrect drop? GNU redoubles immediately.
is ZurichMint
score: 5
pip: 1167 point match pip: 142
score: 4
is blotto
XGID=-a-B-CBBA---bC---bbbbbb-B-:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:7:10 on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No Double Player Winning Chances: 73.39% (G: 24.56% B: 7.48%) Opponent Winning Chances: 26.61% (G: 3.90% B: 0.41%) Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 72.04% (G: 33.12% B: 10.68%) Opponent Winning Chances: 27.96% (G: 4.79% B: 0.53%) Cubeless Equities No Double: +0.894 Double: +1.358 Cubeful Equities No Double: +0.789 Double/Take: +0.766 (-0.023) Double/Drop: +1.000 (+0.211) Best Cube action: No Double / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 plyConfidence No Double: ± 0.019 (+0.770...+0.808) Confidence Double: ± 0.032 (+0.734...+0.799) Double Decision confidence: 88.1% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 42 minutes 57 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: eXtremeGammon
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