Rollout: Three containment positions from the same (money) game

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Rollout: Three containment positions from the same (money) game

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 21 May 2010, at 11:36 p.m.

In Response To: Three containment positions from the same (money) game (Timothy Chow)

In the first position, I decided to hit, figuring it would either give me more time to extend my prime or, if I were hit back, at least give me a shot at a second checker. The rollout indicates that the choice is pretty close, at least if I had played 18/12 instead of 20/14 with the 6, but favors the quieter play of 20/15 18/12 by a small margin.
gnubg 55

tchow 151
Position ID: vXcAAAK2OZiYAA Match ID: UQkXAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity

• 1 R 20/15 18/12 +0.540

0.673 0.000 0.000 - 0.327 0.165 0.001 +0.182 +0.540

0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852763302 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2 R 18/12 8/3* +0.523 ( -0.017)

0.682 0.000 0.000 - 0.318 0.196 0.004 +0.165 +0.523

0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.007

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852763302 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3 R 20/14 8/3* +0.504 ( -0.035)

0.673 0.000 0.000 - 0.327 0.196 0.002 +0.148 +0.504

0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.007

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852763302 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

4 R 20/14 18/13 +0.478 ( -0.062)

0.658 0.000 0.000 - 0.342 0.185 0.001 +0.131 +0.478

0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852763302 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

5 R 15/9 8/3* +0.465 ( -0.074)

0.663 0.000 0.000 - 0.337 0.208 0.002 +0.116 +0.465

0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.007

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852763302 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

In the second position, bar/19 is forced, 13/7(2) is natural, and the difficult question (for me anyway) is whether to slot the back of the prime. The rollout says that it's not worth the risk, but by a much closer margin (about 0.04) than GNU 2-ply says (about 0.15). I haven't quite figured out what change would be needed to make slotting with 15/9 correct; it's not so easy to explore the position interactively because GNU 2-ply's opinion of slotting differs so much from that of the rollout.
gnubg 55

tchow 162
Position ID: vXcAAAK2GawYEA Match ID: UQkbAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity

• 1 R bar/19 18/12 13/7(2) +0.649

0.729 0.000 0.000 - 0.271 0.146 0.001 +0.311 +0.649

0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 853133615 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2 R bar/7 13/7 +0.633 ( -0.016)

0.720 0.000 0.000 - 0.280 0.149 0.001 +0.290 +0.633

0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 853133615 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3 R bar/19 14/8 13/7(2) +0.618 ( -0.031)

0.705 0.000 0.000 - 0.295 0.154 0.000 +0.256 +0.618

0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 853133615 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

4 R bar/19 15/9 13/7(2) +0.609 ( -0.040)

0.694 0.000 0.000 - 0.306 0.203 0.001 +0.184 +0.609

0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.008

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 853133615 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

5 R bar/13 18/12(2) +0.582 ( -0.067)

0.689 0.000 0.000 - 0.311 0.165 0.001 +0.213 +0.582

0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 853133615 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

In the third position I thought my position was strong enough that I could afford to leave two checkers on the 21-point to block double 6's. But no; at least one of them needs to be brought closer to the front lines.
gnubg 41

tchow 156
Position ID: 3x8AAAK2GWOIAQ Match ID: UQkRAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity

• 1 R 21/15 +0.700

0.722 0.000 0.000 - 0.278 0.155 0.000 +0.290 +0.700

0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.005

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 853419963 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2 R 21/19 21/17 +0.681 ( -0.019)

0.717 0.000 0.000 - 0.283 0.159 0.000 +0.274 +0.681

0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.005

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 853419963 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3 R 21/17 18/16 +0.659 ( -0.041)

0.712 0.000 0.000 - 0.288 0.164 0.000 +0.260 +0.659

0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.005

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 853419963 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

4 R 18/12 +0.541 ( -0.159)

0.680 0.000 0.000 - 0.320 0.197 0.000 +0.163 +0.541

0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.005

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 853419963 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

gnubg	55

tchow	151
Position ID: `vXcAAAK2OZiYAA` Match ID: `UQkXAAAAAAAA`

gnubg	55

tchow	162
Position ID: `vXcAAAK2GawYEA` Match ID: `UQkbAAAAAAAA`

gnubg	41

tchow	156
Position ID: `3x8AAAK2GWOIAQ` Match ID: `UQkRAAAAAAAA`

Messages In This Thread

Three containment positions from the same (money) game
Timothy Chow -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 12:31 a.m.
- Three containment positions from the same (money) game
  Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 2:09 a.m.
- Three containment positions from the same (money) game
  Christian Munk-Christensen -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 10:23 a.m.
  - Three containment positions from the same (money) game
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 10:28 a.m.
- Three containment positions from the same (money) game
  Havard Raddum -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 1:10 p.m.
- Rollout: Three containment positions from the same (money) game
  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 21 May 2010, at 11:36 p.m.

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