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** RO **

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 3:43 p.m.

In Response To: ** RO ** (Chase)

14/6 is a more efficient bear-in move, but I don't think that's too important. Both 14/6 and 13/5 give Brown 14/36 hitting numbers. Both plays give Brown 4/36 clearing numbers. Both plays give Brown 11/36 numbers that he must play in his home board. Both plays give Blond 130/1296 shots at a Brown blot.

So what's the difference? Well, on 3-3 14/6 is much better -- Brown can't move, instead of hitting. On 4-4 13/5 must be better, since Brown doesn't hit and wastes 16 pips, but if Brown hits after 14/6, he would have won most of those games anyway. But I believe the big difference is this:

On average, 13/5 lets Brown hit with worse racing numbers -- numbers that would otherwise help Blond in the race, while 14/6 lets Brown hit with better racing numbers -- numbers with which Brown would be a larger racing favorite anyway. The total number of pips rolled in Brown's 14/36 hitting numbers:

After 14/6: 106

After 13/5: 88

Messages In This Thread

• What gives?
  Chase -- Saturday, 22 May 2010, at 7:08 a.m.
  • What gives?
    Keene -- Saturday, 22 May 2010, at 11:20 p.m.
  • ** RO **
    Chase -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 6:15 a.m.
    • ** RO **
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 2:23 p.m.
    • ** RO **
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 3:43 p.m.
      • ** RO **
        Chase -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 5:29 p.m.
        • ** RO **
          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 5:34 p.m.