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Prime vs Prime- 2 on the Bar- What To Do?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 26 May 2010, at 2:45 p.m.

In Response To: Prime vs Prime- 2 on the Bar- What To Do? (Seth)

If we were to move one of White's back checkers forward to White's 6 point then White would have an enormously strong position. 30 spare pips is enough to give White about a 50% chance of escaping from behind a 5-prime when not at the edge, and here White has slightly more than that, plus the chance of sending one or even two more Blue checkers to the bar (although 1's are duped). Even if White starts to collapse he still has some time because Blue still has to enter from the bar against (for example) a 5-point board.

HOWEVER, in the given position, White has TWO checkers behind a 5-prime not at the edge, and that changes everything. Despite White's chances at picking up more blots I think White rates to crash before escaping. Big no double for money. At the score, maybe a double, but still a big take.

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