Well. I know that the rollouts are not what WC players would consider strong settings, but they are good enough to get an impression of how helpful the front position of the underdog is.
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| XGID=-a-BaBDBB--ab----c-cbAbA-A:0:0:-1:00:1:2:0:9:10 | ||||||||||||||||
 on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
is Player 1 | Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64,02% (G: 22,43% B: 1,69%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35,98% (G: 10,62% B: 0,85%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64,09% (G: 21,89% B: 2,14%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35,91% (G: 10,48% B: 1,06%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0,415 |
| Double: | +0,830 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0,535 |
| Double/Take: | +0,463 (-0,073) |
| Double/Drop: | +1,000 (+0,465) |
| Best Cube action: No Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 2 ply Search interval: Large | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0,027 (+0,508...+0,562) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0,039 (+0,424...+0,502) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 99,9% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Duration: 2 minutes 22 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: GnuBG 11 point
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| XGID=-a-BaBC-B--abC---c-cbAbA-A:0:0:-1:00:1:2:0:9:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 63,97% (G: 27,72% B: 2,20%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 36,03% (G: 9,48% B: 0,68%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64,08% (G: 27,89% B: 2,53%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35,92% (G: 9,60% B: 1,27%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0,490 |
| Double: | +0,985 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0,603 (-0,016) |
| Double/Take: | +0,620 |
| Double/Drop: | +1,000 (+0,380) |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 2 ply Search interval: Large | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0,026 (+0,578...+0,629) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0,039 (+0,581...+0,659) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 75,4% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Duration: 3 minutes 04 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: GnuBG 11 point
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| XGID=-a--aBD-C--abC---c-cbAbA-A:0:0:-1:00:1:2:0:9:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66,94% (G: 32,01% B: 2,48%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33,06% (G: 7,95% B: 0,60%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 67,40% (G: 32,20% B: 2,66%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 32,60% (G: 7,93% B: 0,81%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0,616 |
| Double: | +1,270 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0,753 (-0,175) |
| Double/Take: | +0,928 |
| Double/Drop: | +1,000 (+0,072) |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 2 ply Search interval: Large | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0,026 (+0,727...+0,780) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0,041 (+0,887...+0,969) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Duration: 3 minutes 26 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: GnuBG 11 point
Escaping one checker or getting an advanced anchor is a huge plus for the favorite:
I tried to balance the race gain from escaping by bringing down a checker from the mid, so the race can be compared (more or less) to the previous pos.
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| XGID=-a---BD-D--acB---c-cbAbA-A:0:0:-1:00:1:2:0:9:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 71,16% (G: 33,75% B: 2,49%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 28,84% (G: 6,48% B: 0,51%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 71,35% (G: 35,06% B: 3,20%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 28,65% (G: 6,78% B: 0,75%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0,736 |
| Double: | +1,536 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0,911 (-0,089) |
| Double/Take: | +1,245 (+0,245) |
| Double/Drop: | +1,000 |
| Best Cube action: Double / Drop | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 2 ply Search interval: Large | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0,025 (+0,886...+0,936) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0,039 (+1,207...+1,284) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Duration: 2 minutes 53 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: GnuBG 11 point
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| XGID=----bBD-C--abC---c-cbAbA-A:0:0:-1:00:1:2:0:9:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68,86% (G: 33,75% B: 2,55%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31,14% (G: 6,60% B: 0,48%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68,44% (G: 35,04% B: 3,10%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31,56% (G: 6,91% B: 0,72%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0,690 |
| Double: | +1,411 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0,851 (-0,149) |
| Double/Take: | +1,098 (+0,098) |
| Double/Drop: | +1,000 |
| Best Cube action: Double / Drop | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 2 ply Search interval: Large | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0,025 (+0,827...+0,876) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0,040 (+1,057...+1,138) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Duration: 3 minutes 05 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: GnuBG 11 point
I too have big problems when sitting on the bar and facing a blitz cube. It is very easy to envision all the gammons lost after a Take, and thus get driven into a chicken pass.
I hope these RO help a little to encourage you into taking next time ;-)