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Not many options but still tricky.

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 27 May 2010, at 5:40 p.m.

In Response To: Not many options but still tricky. (christian munk-christensen)

Is there any other way of figuring out the right play than going over the opponent's numbers? I think not.

Me neither. But you might discard 6/4* 10/9 right away because at a glance it appears to leave more return hits and fewer ways to make the 4 point. Also discard 6/4* 6/5 because it also leaves fewer ways to cover the blot and has less afterlife if White enters hitting.

So your choice is between 13/10 and 6/4* 13/12.

Now you might break White's rolls into three categories:

(1) The 9 combinations of 1's, 5's and 6's.

I think these slightly favor 6/4* overall.

(2) The 9 combinations of 2's, 3's, and 4's.

I think these favor 13/10 overall by a larger amount.

(3) the 18 combinations a 1, 5 or 6 with a 2, 3 or 4.

6-2 6-3 6-4 -> advantage 13/10.

5-2 5-3 5-4 -> advantage 6/4*

4-2 4-3 4-4 -> advantage 13/10.

Bottom line: Without trying to be any more specific, I play 13/10 and hope it's right.

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