OTB I thought that I was ahead in the race and should play safe, and played 10/7. However, I think Caspar is right: Because both sides have a straggler, and I can't safety my straggler this turn, the small race lead could evaporate in an eyeblink. Viewed that way, boldly making the 5-point is the way to go. It still looks overly bold to me, though, so I need to study some variants of the position to make sure this is the right way to understand the rollout below.
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
| • | 1 | R | 7/5 6/5 | +0.337 |
| | | 0.520 | 0.204 | 0.005 | - | 0.480 | 0.089 | 0.004 | +0.157 | +0.337 | | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | - | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.005 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852494213 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 2 | R | 6/3* | +0.297 ( -0.040) |
| | | 0.505 | 0.206 | 0.006 | - | 0.495 | 0.109 | 0.006 | +0.107 | +0.297 | | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | - | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.006 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852494213 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 3 | R | 23/22 10/8 | +0.295 ( -0.042) |
| | | 0.518 | 0.168 | 0.005 | - | 0.482 | 0.097 | 0.004 | +0.109 | +0.295 | | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | - | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.004 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852494213 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 4 | R | 10/7 | +0.279 ( -0.058) |
| | | 0.504 | 0.181 | 0.005 | - | 0.496 | 0.083 | 0.004 | +0.107 | +0.279 | | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | - | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.004 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852494213 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
