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BGonline.org Forums
Understanding cube action
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Understanding cube action (Cheryl Andersen)
Date: Friday, 28 May 2010, at 2:28 a.m.
The main reason why Blonde should double is the score. But Blonde should also realize that even though she is on the roof, she's a favorite to win this game and many of her wins will be gammons. Blonde would not double in a MG (money game) for fear that the cube would often come right back at her, or that she would lose a gammon. But neither of those worries exists at the match score after doubling.
Trailing 7-away 2-away, in a position where many of Blonde's losses will be gammons, doubling costs very little. It risks not being able to pass later to trail 7-away 1-away and not being able to double Brown out later to trail 6-away 2-away. Neither of those possibilities is worth much. And if the result of the game was going to be an undoubled gammon loss (losing the match), Blonde's double risks nothing.
Doubling now gains a lot when it works, because many of Blonde's wins will be gammon wins. In short by doubling Blonde risks one match point for a good of winning four. Those are good odds.
Now look at the position. Blonde has a very good prime and Brown has three blots. See how many rolls put Blonde in the driver's seat. As good rolls I'm going to count all the rolls that puts one or more of Brown's blots on the bar even though of course Blonde won't win all the time after that:
1-1 1-2 1-3 1-4 1-6 2-2 2-3 2-4 2-6 3-3 3-5 3-6 4-5 4-6
That's 25 times in 36. Some of these rolls are great like 1-1 and 2-2, and some not so great like 1-5. But in response to them all, Brown most roll well. Brown will be passing next turn too often for Blonde not to double now.
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