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Rollout: Later on in the same game...

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 28 May 2010, at 3:23 a.m.

In Response To: Later on in the same game... (Max Urban)

I've somewhat belatedly gotten around to looking at this position that Max Urban posted. I wanted to play 10/8(2) while Chase and Daniel Murphy preferred 9/7*(2). To avoid "noise" from the score I've switched to a money-game setting. The GNU rollout sides with Chase and Daniel; however, in the variant position below, 10/8(2) wins the rollout. Theories, anyone?

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Original position, but now for money:

gnubg	83
tchow	156
Position ID: bJsEyAw3OdsAAA Match ID: AYEEAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	9/7*(2)	+0.169
			0.464 0.211 0.004 - 0.536 0.139 0.006 -0.002 +0.169 0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.005 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 853394920 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	10/8(2)	+0.076 ( -0.093)
			0.451 0.143 0.003 - 0.549 0.115 0.004 -0.071 +0.076 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.004 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 853394920 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	9/7*/6 9/8	+0.041 ( -0.128)
			0.430 0.200 0.004 - 0.570 0.149 0.007 -0.093 +0.041 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.004 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 853394920 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Variant position, again for money:

gnubg	88
tchow	160
Position ID: bJsEiBknO9sAAA Match ID: AYEEAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	10/8(2)	+0.347
			0.525 0.178 0.006 - 0.475 0.085 0.003 +0.146 +0.347 0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 853139335 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	10/8 10/9 6/5	+0.314 ( -0.034)
			0.518 0.180 0.005 - 0.482 0.095 0.004 +0.122 +0.314 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.005 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 853139335 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	9/7*(2)	+0.275 ( -0.072)
			0.492 0.219 0.008 - 0.508 0.111 0.004 +0.096 +0.275 0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 853139335 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Later on in the same game...
  Max Urban -- Friday, 7 May 2010, at 11:42 a.m.
  • Later on in the same game...
    Chase -- Friday, 7 May 2010, at 12:30 p.m.
  • Later on in the same game...
    Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 7 May 2010, at 1:36 p.m.
  • Later on in the same game...
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 7 May 2010, at 5:45 p.m.
  • Rollout: Later on in the same game...
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 3:23 a.m.
    • Rollout: Later on in the same game...
      Sam Pottle -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 5:14 a.m.
      • Rollout: Later on in the same game...
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 5:06 p.m.
    • Rollout: Later on in the same game...
      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 7:02 p.m.
      • Rollout: Later on in the same game...
        Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 30 May 2010, at 12:44 a.m.