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Cube action ROs

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 28 May 2010, at 7:25 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action (Timothy Chow)

To paraphrase another world class player about this world class player: "I have no doubt that this player would show a positive result if given enough time versus any other human player in match play." But the paraquotation is from the pre-XG era.

OTB I doubled because it looked like a double. If I'd thought about it, I'd have figured Blue wins at least 60% with quite a few gammons, and there are obviously quite a few market losing sequences -- some big and small doublets, some hitting numbers, and sequences like 6-3 and 5-4 followed by surviving the resulting single or double shot. So I would have doubled. My world class opponent would not have doubled.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 5, Blue 1

Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	117
Blue	58
Position ID: bdsAhAO/mYMBAA Match ID: cAkAAFAACAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.3581
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.4567
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.5433
3.	No double	+0.3247	-0.1320
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6227 0.1765 0.0008 - 0.3773 0.0629 0.0018 +0.3581 +0.3247 Standard error 0.0011 0.0011 0.0003 - 0.0011 0.0012 0.0003 0.0027 0.0050 Player White owns 2-cube 0.6303 0.1778 0.0006 - 0.3697 0.0627 0.0016 +0.7491 +0.4567 Standard error 0.0012 0.0013 0.0003 - 0.0012 0.0013 0.0003 0.0059 0.0097
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852751507 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.2885
0.6061 0.1523 0.0005 - 0.3939 0.0761 0.0005
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.3315
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.6685)
3. Double, take +0.3290 ( -0.0025)
Proper cube action: No double, take (0.4%)

For comparison, let's move the White blot a few pips so that Blue can't break the 11 point point with a hit. This also means Blue will win fewer gammons. On the upside, it means no sequences give White a double shot:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 5, Blue 1

Move number 4: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	113
Blue	58
Position ID: bdtAgAO/mYMBAA Match ID: cAkAAFAACAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.2763
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.3561
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.6439
3.	No double	+0.2997	-0.0564
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6257 0.0770 0.0002 - 0.3743 0.0511 0.0011 +0.2763 +0.2997 Standard error 0.0011 0.0012 0.0000 - 0.0011 0.0014 0.0002 0.0028 0.0052 Player White owns 2-cube 0.6369 0.0739 0.0002 - 0.3631 0.0498 0.0012 +0.5938 +0.3561 Standard error 0.0013 0.0013 0.0000 - 0.0013 0.0015 0.0002 0.0062 0.0102
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
819 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852751507 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Double/take, even without the blot.

Messages In This Thread

• Cube action
  Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 2:08 a.m.
  • Cube action
    lenny -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 2:24 a.m.
  • Cube action
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 3:11 a.m.
    • Cube action
      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 4:14 a.m.
      • Cube action
        Stick -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 5:38 a.m.
        • Cube action
          Timothy Chow -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 5:08 p.m.
          • Cube action ROs
            Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 7:25 p.m.
            • quotation
              Klaus Evers -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 9:19 p.m.
              • quotation
                Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 9:41 p.m.
              • quotation
                neilkaz -- Saturday, 29 May 2010, at 2:47 a.m.
          • Cube action
            Stick -- Saturday, 29 May 2010, at 12:23 p.m.
            • Cube action
              Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 29 May 2010, at 3:32 p.m.
              • Cube action
                Philippe Michel -- Saturday, 29 May 2010, at 6:11 p.m.
                • Cube action
                  Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 29 May 2010, at 7:05 p.m.