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42P-31P-42, updated rollout

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 29 May 2010, at 12:41 a.m.

In Response To: 42P-31P-42, updated rollout (mtuhtan)

Thanks for the extension, Miran. The variance from a rollout of less than a few thousand trials can throw off one's intuition when trying to analyze a range of positions.

At first, I was puzzled as to why XG rolled out 42P-42P-42D as poorly as -.027, in part because Snowie's 5k has it at only -.011, but also because 42P-31P-42D was, prior to extension, -.035 (i.e., not enough worse than -.027 to fit a decent curve).

But then I saw that you extended 42P-31P-42 (from a mere 2k) and D's error size increased to -.044, restoring some decency: basically, D's comparison with the best splitting play now progresses from -.031 to -.015 to +.027 to +.044, for the positions in which Opp owns the 5pt, 4pt, 3pt and 2pt, respectively. This curve is illustrated in the sequence of diagrams below.

D is worse than Z by .031

D is worse than S by .015

D is better than S by .027

D is better than S by .044

Nactation key: D = Down (13/11 13/9), S = Split (24/20 13/11), Z = reverse split (24/22 13/9).

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• The return of Unreal backgammon
  mtuhtan -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:17 p.m.
  • The return of Unreal backgammon
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 3:41 p.m.
  • The return of Unreal backgammon
    mtuhtan -- Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 2:09 p.m.
    • The return of Unreal backgammon
      Stick -- Wednesday, 26 May 2010, at 10:01 a.m.
  • The return of Unreal backgammon
    Chase -- Wednesday, 26 May 2010, at 12:02 p.m.
  • 42P-61P-42 - Rollout
    mtuhtan -- Wednesday, 26 May 2010, at 10:34 p.m.
  • 42P-31P-42 - Rollout
    mtuhtan -- Wednesday, 26 May 2010, at 10:37 p.m.
  • 42P-42P-42 - Rollout
    mtuhtan -- Wednesday, 26 May 2010, at 10:38 p.m.
  • 42P-53P-42 - Rollout
    mtuhtan -- Wednesday, 26 May 2010, at 10:39 p.m.
  • 42P-64P-42 - Rollout
    mtuhtan -- Wednesday, 26 May 2010, at 10:40 p.m.
    • 42P-xxP-42, summary
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 27 May 2010, at 7:54 a.m.
      • 42P-xxP-42, summary
        mtuhtan -- Thursday, 27 May 2010, at 8:27 a.m.
        • 42P-42P-42, updated rollout
          mtuhtan -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 3:15 p.m.
          • 42P-42P-42, updated rollout
            Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 3:35 p.m.
            • 42P-42P-42, notes regarding Z vs S
              Nack Ballard -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 10:10 p.m.
        • 42P-31P-42, updated rollout
          mtuhtan -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 3:16 p.m.
          • 42P-31P-42, updated rollout
            Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 29 May 2010, at 12:41 a.m.