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Rollout: A critical decision from our chouette

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 29 May 2010, at 2:44 a.m.

In Response To: A critical decision from our chouette (Timothy Chow)

I still don't think this decision is quite as trivial as some have been making it out to be. As the rollouts below show, breaking the board is a whopper if White has a three-point board with a blot, and we can interpolate smoothly between the two cases by giving White various blotless three-point boards. Maybe obvious in retrospect but certainly not so clear to me OTB exactly where the crossover point was—and that slightly misjudging the crossover point makes a massive difference.

gnubg	106
tchow	81
Position ID: mzkbAAO3zQYEAg Match ID: QQkZAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	20/14 4/2	+0.324
			0.700 0.024 0.001 - 0.300 0.034 0.001 +0.391 +0.324 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852640893 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	20/14 3/1	+0.314 ( -0.010)
			0.695 0.027 0.000 - 0.305 0.036 0.001 +0.380 +0.314 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852640893 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	20/12	+0.206 ( -0.118)
			0.666 0.047 0.001 - 0.334 0.064 0.002 +0.314 +0.206 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852640893 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	14/6	-0.124 ( -0.448)
			0.509 0.100 0.001 - 0.491 0.026 0.001 +0.093 -0.124 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852640893 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

gnubg	109
tchow	81
Position ID: zTkbAAO3zQYEAg Match ID: QQkZAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	20/12	+0.467
			0.746 0.092 0.002 - 0.254 0.033 0.001 +0.553 +0.467 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852766586 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	20/14 4/2	+0.368 ( -0.099)
			0.723 0.026 0.000 - 0.277 0.032 0.001 +0.439 +0.368 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852766586 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	20/14 3/1	+0.355 ( -0.112)
			0.718 0.029 0.000 - 0.282 0.034 0.001 +0.430 +0.355 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852766586 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	14/6	+0.195 ( -0.272)
			0.636 0.099 0.001 - 0.364 0.022 0.000 +0.349 +0.195 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 852766586 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• A critical decision from our chouette
  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 3:28 a.m.
  • A critical decision from our chouette
    Seth -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 3:44 a.m.
  • A critical decision from our chouette
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 3:44 a.m.
    • A critical decision from our chouette
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 3:46 a.m.
  • A critical decision from our chouette
    Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 5:23 a.m.
  • A critical decision from our chouette
    Stick -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 5:43 a.m.
    • A critical decision from our chouette
      Steve Mellen -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 5:52 a.m.
      • A critical decision from our chouette
        Stick -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 6:02 a.m.
        • A critical decision from our chouette
          Steve Mellen -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 6:04 a.m.
    • A critical decision from our chouette
      neilkaz -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 1:41 p.m.
  • A critical decision from our chouette
    Bob Koca -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 12:03 p.m.
  • A critical decision from our chouette
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 2:38 p.m.
    • A critical decision from our chouette
      Stuart Katz -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 4:01 p.m.
  • OTB
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 28 May 2010, at 5:24 p.m.
  • Rollout: A critical decision from our chouette
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 29 May 2010, at 2:44 a.m.
    • Rollout: A critical decision from our chouette
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 29 May 2010, at 2:54 a.m.