OTB I thought this was a very strong recube since I have 15 superb shots to make a 5 pt board, and since if I fail to do so, everything else creates more builders. I was honestly unsure whether this was a take or pass, but felt likely a bare take. This overestimate caused me to wimp my 2 last turn by playing 14/12 rather than 13/11 getting a direct 6, but leaving two more blots.. ie a clear error.
Anyhow..my opp passed so all was good.
I was suprised when XG evals (4 ply and XGR+) dinged me for this recube and the rollout shows my recube is clear, but a clear take.
This is the type of late blitz position where XG is consisantly overvaluing the trailer's chances.
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| XGID=bB-CBAB-----AB---c-cbcBb--:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||
 on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
is tanzsox| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69.23% (G: 28.60% B: 0.66%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.77% (G: 9.86% B: 0.81%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 71.11% (G: 30.97% B: 0.68%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 28.89% (G: 10.60% B: 1.65%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.554 |
| Redouble: | +1.074 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.748 (-0.094) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.842 |
| Redouble/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.158) |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 99937755 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Redouble: | ± 0.006 (+0.742...+0.754) |
| Confidence Redouble: | ± 0.011 (+0.831...+0.853) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross