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Death Trap Score: -2/-4

Posted By: Steve Mellen
Date: Tuesday, 1 June 2010, at 4:14 p.m.

In Response To: Death Trap Score: -2/-4 (Timothy Chow)

I don't think you understood my point. I didn't say it was never correct to hold on to the cube. I said the fact that your opponent might incorrectly take later is not where your equity gain comes from. Even if you know with certainty that your opponent will still take next roll (which is seldom true in the real world), your equity gain comes from the scenario where you roll poorly and now have the option to refrain from cubing. When you roll well and he takes anyway, even if you've tricked him into taking a stone-cold pass, you're still no better off than if you had given the theoretically proper cube the previous roll and gotten a take.

As a practical matter, I think players underrate the equity they lose by failing to cube a proper D/T position at this score, which is to say that they don't worry enough about the scenario where they roll a total crusher and lose their market against anyone. Again, I am not denying that a good player can gain equity against an imperfect opponent by making theoretically incorrect cube decisions, but in the real world we do not always creep up methodically on the take point at small intervals. Sometimes we outsmart ourselves by being cute with the cube.

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