[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Early round in Chicago

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 1 June 2010, at 6:59 p.m.

In Response To: Early round in Chicago (Sam Pottle)

The score is 4a/8a. Blue holds a 2-cube.

ND & Win or D/P -> 2a/8a = 87% ME. ND & Lose -> 4a/6a = 64% ME.

Should White take? If he passes he trails 8a/2a for 12.5% match equity. If he takes, Blue has 7/36 numbers that miss -- White redoubles, Blue passes, and White has 50% ME. That's 7/36 * 50% = about 10% ME right there. Blue has 26/36 numbers that take two or three checkers off. White redoubles, Blue takes, White wins 5/36 of these and has 26/36 * 5/36 * 100% = another 10% ME. Easy take.

Should Blue double?

On his 3 good doublets, he gains 3/36 * 13% ME.

On his 7 bad numbers, if he hadn't doubled, he would either have won about 1/6 of the time for 87% or lost for 64% ME. Let's call that 68%. Having doubled, he has 50% ME. So he loses 7/36 * 18% ME on his 7 bad numbers.

7/36 * 18% is quite a bit larger than 3/36 * 13%.

On his 26 other numbers, he gains 85% of 13% and loses 15% of 64%. Doubling gains on these sequences, but not enough to make up for his 7/36 bad numbers.

No double.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.