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Death Trap Score: -2/-4

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 1 June 2010, at 8:16 p.m.

In Response To: Death Trap Score: -2/-4 (Steve Mellen)

Steve Mellen wrote:

I said the fact that your opponent might incorrectly take later is not where your equity gain comes from. Even if you know with certainty that your opponent will still take next roll (which is seldom true in the real world), your equity gain comes from the scenario where you roll poorly and now have the option to refrain from cubing.

What you said before was, There are factors that might justify that sacrifice of equity, but the fact that your opponent might incorrectly take at some future point is definitely not one of them. That's just not correct. It is precisely the fact that my opponent is definitely going to take next turn that allows me to safely sacrifice equity now. I'll gain if I roll poorly and I won't lose anything if I roll well. The fact that my "market losers" won't actually lose my market with this opponent is the justification for refraining from doubling now.

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