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Death Trap Score: -2/-4

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 1 June 2010, at 9:11 p.m.

In Response To: Death Trap Score: -2/-4 (Timothy Chow)

Tim, Steve's point was clear to me. If you have a D/T now and don't double and get a D/T next roll, regardless of whether it's a take or a pass next roll, you haven't gained any equity by not doubling now.

If you are 100% certain your opponent will take any cube next roll regardless of how much you have overshot your market, then fine, don't double. That's basic backgammon -- you have no market losers. But you still don't gain equity by doubling next turn instead of this turn.

Anyway, at 4a/2a, double early. I mean soon. And at this score I'd be much more concerned about the probability of overshooting my market and getting a pass next turn than about the probability of overshooting my market and getting a bad take. Your 4-away opponent might take cubes like this one:

White 4a Blue 2a / 31P-21S-64H-41P-CubeAction?

White153


'2O '1O2X4X '2X ' ' '4O

1X ' ' ' '5O '3O ' '1X5X

Blue173

Position ID: 4HPwABmwZ/AFIA Match ID: MBngADAAKAAA

But if Blue takes now, White still hasn't gained any equity by not doubling on his last turn.

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