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Locking up the win

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 2 June 2010, at 2:45 a.m.

In Response To: Locking up the win (Daniel Murphy)

A) Close the board B) Run 20/10 twice C) Run 20/15 twice and PoH. With A, I think you lose around 4.6/36 games -- 40% of your 9 non-escapers and 1/27 of the others. B) Only 61 forces you to leave a direct next time but clearing the 8 & 10 and then winning the game is far from a given. I've been wrong before but I'll be surprised if this play comes out on top. C) It looks like you'll lose around 2 of the oppts 25 dancing rolls (worse than the 1/27 I gave in A since your ace is still open) so can the oppt find > 2.6 wins on his 11 entering #'s? I think so. You do have some jokers (D5,51,D4) but 10/ll 6s force you to leave a direct, and most other numbers force you to hit loose on the ace.

Close the board and hope for a 4 or higher.

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