some rollouts

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some rollouts

Posted By: Klaus Evers
Date: Wednesday, 2 June 2010, at 8:55 p.m.

In Response To: 21 to play from the roof (Adam Versaw)

This one got my intention, because my checkerplay ATS is pretty lame. I would have hit OTB and try to lock up the win right now. Neil said he' do a rollout, but since he seemed to missed this position I'll throw in my 2ct.

is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 108

11 point match

pip: 97
score: 9

is Player 1

XGID=--aCCCBbC----------bccbb-A:1:1:1:21:9:8:0:11:10
to play 21

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 4/2* eq: -0,284
Player:
Opponent: 43,25% (G:14,11% B:0,75%)
56,75% (G:16,47% B:1,36%) Conf: ą 0,009 (-0,293...-0,275)
Duration: 34,4 seconds
2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/6 eq: -0,305 (-0,021)
Player:
Opponent: 37,50% (G:14,48% B:1,23%)
62,50% (G:6,42% B:0,46%) Conf: ą 0,008 (-0,313...-0,297)
Duration: 28,6 seconds
3. Rollout¹ Bar/24 3/1 eq: -0,361 (-0,077)
Player:
Opponent: 35,84% (G:13,34% B:1,11%)
64,16% (G:8,74% B:0,49%) Conf: ą 0,008 (-0,369...-0,353)
Duration: 25,7 seconds
4. 4 ply Bar/24 5/3 eq: -0,423 (-0,139)
Player:
Opponent: 33,70% (G:10,51% B:0,63%)
66,30% (G:10,35% B:0,22%)

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 2 ply
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: GnuBG 11 point

Once I saw this result, I tried to find a score where hitting would be wrong:

is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 108

11 point match

pip: 97
score: 9

is Player 1

XGID=--aCCCBbC----------bccbb-A:1:1:1:21:9:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/6 eq: -0,368
Player:
Opponent: 37,83% (G:14,68% B:1,41%)
62,17% (G:6,67% B:0,50%) Conf: ą 0,011 (-0,379...-0,357)
Duration: 28,9 seconds
2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 3/1 eq: -0,448 (-0,080)
Player:
Opponent: 36,05% (G:13,20% B:1,10%)
63,95% (G:8,94% B:0,46%) Conf: ą 0,011 (-0,459...-0,437)
Duration: 26,0 seconds
3. Rollout¹ Bar/24 4/2* eq: -0,454 (-0,086)
Player:
Opponent: 43,14% (G:14,49% B:0,72%)
56,86% (G:16,33% B:1,09%) Conf: ą 0,013 (-0,467...-0,441)
Duration: 34,1 seconds
4. 4 ply Bar/24 5/3 eq: -0,531 (-0,163)
Player:
Opponent: 33,69% (G:10,61% B:0,64%)
66,31% (G:10,24% B:0,21%)

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 2 ply
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: GnuBG 11 point

OK, GS at -2 -4. How about -2 -5? Still GSLike?

is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 108

11 point match

pip: 97
score: 9

is Player 1

XGID=--aCCCBbC----------bccbb-A:1:1:1:21:9:6:0:11:10
to play 21

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/6 eq: -0,338
Player:
Opponent: 37,60% (G:14,68% B:1,31%)
62,40% (G:6,69% B:0,23%) Conf: ą 0,009 (-0,347...-0,329)
Duration: 29,1 seconds
2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 4/2* eq: -0,360 (-0,021)
Player:
Opponent: 43,20% (G:14,25% B:0,74%)
56,80% (G:16,06% B:0,62%) Conf: ą 0,011 (-0,371...-0,349)
Duration: 34,5 seconds
3. Rollout¹ Bar/24 3/1 eq: -0,400 (-0,061)
Player:
Opponent: 36,00% (G:13,32% B:1,12%)
64,00% (G:8,85% B:0,24%) Conf: ą 0,009 (-0,409...-0,391)
Duration: 26,2 seconds
4. 4 ply Bar/24 5/3 eq: -0,474 (-0,136)
Player:
Opponent: 33,72% (G:10,56% B:0,64%)
66,28% (G:10,34% B:0,22%)

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 2 ply
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: GnuBG 11 point

Finally I just wanted to reassure myself that I get the right play at DMP (probably obvious to most of you):

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 108

1 point match

pip: 97
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=--aCCCBbC----------bccbb-A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
to play 21

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 4/2* eq: -0,152
Player:
Opponent: 42,41% (G:13,80% B:0,67%)
57,59% (G:17,16% B:1,07%) Conf: ą 0,008 (-0,160...-0,144)
Duration: 35,9 seconds
2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/6 eq: -0,258 (-0,106)
Player:
Opponent: 37,11% (G:14,24% B:1,15%)
62,89% (G:6,93% B:0,34%) Conf: ą 0,007 (-0,265...-0,251)
Duration: 30,4 seconds
3. Rollout¹ Bar/24 3/1 eq: -0,292 (-0,140)
Player:
Opponent: 35,39% (G:12,89% B:0,96%)
64,61% (G:8,38% B:0,41%) Conf: ą 0,007 (-0,299...-0,285)
Duration: 26,4 seconds
4. 4 ply Bar/24 5/3 eq: -0,326 (-0,174)
Player:
Opponent: 33,72% (G:10,45% B:0,63%)
66,28% (G:10,39% B:0,24%)

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 2 ply
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: GnuBG 11 point

Messages In This Thread

21 to play from the roof
Adam Versaw -- Monday, 31 May 2010, at 1:53 p.m.
- My quick thoughts OTB
  neilkaz -- Monday, 31 May 2010, at 2:58 p.m.
- 21 to play from the roof
  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 31 May 2010, at 6:34 p.m.
- some rollouts
  Klaus Evers -- Wednesday, 2 June 2010, at 8:55 p.m.
  - some rollouts
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 2 June 2010, at 9:03 p.m.
- Rollout 3 ply
  Adam Versaw -- Thursday, 3 June 2010, at 10:09 a.m.
  - compare Rockwell-Kaz to G11 and different plies in RO: odd/even effect in XG?
    Klaus Evers -- Thursday, 3 June 2010, at 1:10 p.m.
    - compare Rockwell-Kaz to G11 and different plies in RO: odd/even effect in XG?
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 3 June 2010, at 3:16 p.m.
      - compare Rockwell-Kaz to G11 and different plies in RO: odd/even effect in XG?
        Klaus Evers -- Thursday, 3 June 2010, at 3:56 p.m.
        
        XG odd/even effect
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 3 June 2010, at 4:50 p.m.
        
        XG odd/even effect
        Leonardo Jerkovic -- Thursday, 3 June 2010, at 6:26 p.m.
        
        XG odd/even effect
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 3 June 2010, at 11:00 p.m.
        
        XG odd/even effect
        misja -- Friday, 4 June 2010, at 3:15 p.m.
        
        XG odd/even effect
        Nack Ballard -- Friday, 4 June 2010, at 9:22 p.m.
    - rollout and g11
      Adam Versaw -- Thursday, 3 June 2010, at 11:33 p.m.

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