[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Rollout - Cube Decision

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 7 December 2006, at 2:23 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Wed. Dec. 6th - Cube Decision (Stick)

I was very happy this rollout came out in my favor. Snowie 3 ply has this position as a ND/T by .021. I saw the gammon threat as too large to not double and Snowie changed its mind in the rollout. The take was easy yes, but the brittleness of your position led me to cube. First of all I went over the "PRAT" criteria already. After that when I hit loose, which is the majority of my rolls, if you enter you can enter with some pretty ugly numbers. You have no real spares to play if you are unable to hop out to the outfield you'll be forced to slot your homeboard points or concede the midpoint.


Match to 25, tied at 2
White on roll. Cube Action?
141
149
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.442
  1.0%  28.6%  62.5%    37.5%   9.9%   0.6%
  95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.442 ±0.012. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 44327 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
1. Double, take 0.610
2. No double 0.586 (-0.024)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.390)
Proper cube action:   Double, take

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.