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Rollout - Whopperz R Us

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 7 December 2006, at 2:35 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Wed. Dec 6th - Play (Stick)

I didn't 'next' this position because I felt it was something people might play bar/17*/9 ... as you did. The voting was close but in the end you went for the "safe" play. Notice the "safe" play loses more gammons?

After bar/17* you now have 3 of my checkers back and making some points is crucial for you to win this game. It starts a decent blockade esp. when I have 3 men back and not much else to play. Also as mentioned it gives me 3 more fanning numbers. If I fan here that's a huge swing. Making the 4 pt. leaves 14 shots, 4 of them being doubles, that's not all that many shots considering the huge improvement making the 4 pt. is. The "safe" play also leaves 5 shots and the 2nd blot is still dangling.


Match to 25, tied at 2
131
151
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/17* 8/4(2) 0.268
1.7% 17.0% 54.5% 45.5% 20.0% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.073 ±0.024. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 13319 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R bar/17*/9 0.058 (-0.210)
0.9% 12.8% 48.6% 51.4% 22.4% 0.4%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.120 ±0.017. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 21881 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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