By making the correct play of 8/2 I don't cough up another blot into a double shot plus and I would leave Taki's aces and three duplicated. This is a trap I have a hard time avoiding because when the resulting play of 8/2 doesn't leave me basically gin in the race or my opponent doesn't have a board made yet as he doesn't here, I prefer keeping my checkers actively in the game. I am up 14 pips after the roll though and should have no problem at some point extricating my back checker. Even though some numbers don't hit, like 21, 53, etc... there are still too many hit and cover numbers for too little a gain. The one plus of my play is it may draw immediate misplays from Taki who likes to hit even when he shouldn't. (not an excuse for me making the play OtB, I preferred it at the time)
         
    
         
 |  is Taki
score: 9
pip: 164 | | 11 point match | pip: 158
score: 1
 is Stick |
|
| XGID=---aa-E-Da--dC--Bc-da----A:0:0:1:62:1:9:0:11:10 |
| to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 8/2 | eq: +0.261 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.20% (G:12.42% B:0.58%)
48.80% (G:13.77% B:1.36%) | Conf: ± 0.018 (+0.243...+0.279)
Duration: 16 minutes 54 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 13/7 | eq: +0.180 (-0.081) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.32% (G:12.05% B:0.54%)
50.68% (G:14.76% B:2.00%) | Conf: ± 0.018 (+0.162...+0.198)
Duration: 19 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36438452
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
I couldn't resist bringing the race into view even though I knew that checker on the ace point was a nice dead checker. I toyed with the idea of 6/5* but it leaves an awkward position with 3 checkers behind a solid 4 prime and not even at the edge of it. It is also 19 shots and I'm not assured to cover when Taki does miss, like slotting with an opening 51. The long term gain of not allowing that checker to join the front lines should have been my #1 priority.
   
  
| is Taki
score: 9
pip: 149 | | 11 point match | pip: 179
score: 1
is Stick |
|
| XGID=---BbaD-Ca--b---B-bbbbABaA:0:0:1:21:1:9:0:11:10 |
| to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 | eq: -0.446 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.38% (G:8.14% B:0.48%)
65.62% (G:31.04% B:6.44%) | Conf: ± 0.016 (-0.462...-0.430)
Duration: 37 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout2 | Bar/23 6/5* | eq: -0.510 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.41% (G:7.91% B:0.50%)
66.59% (G:34.80% B:9.97%) | Conf: ± 0.025 (-0.535...-0.485)
Duration: 23 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/24* 24/22 | eq: -0.540 (-0.093) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.15% (G:7.48% B:0.36%)
68.85% (G:28.23% B:5.65%) | Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.555...-0.525)
Duration: 49 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36438452
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36438452
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
On this next one I didn't even consider a play other than 22/14. The five is near forced as I have to hop over that prime when my dice allow it. 13/8 would be overly optimistic to say the least. So with the 5 out of the way the only 'logical' 3 to my autopilot mine was to keep the checker moving and not create what would appear to be 5 blots out of nowhere and give up the 16pt.
Aside from the blot count, going from 3 to 5, the fancy play of 17, 13 doesn't give up that much. It leaves aces (duplicated to enter and hit), threes, fours, and fives (also duplicated). My play left twos, threes, and fives (duplicated). My play also duplicated my own fives to escape next turn and hit Taki's other blot whereas the bot play diversified my numbers much better. A tough play to find OtB ... esp. when you don't even set it up.
   
| is Taki
score: 9
pip: 175 | | 11 point match | pip: 160
score: 1
is Stick |
|
| XGID=aaBBBbB-Aa--b---B-bbbbBB--:0:0:1:53:1:9:0:11:10 |
| to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 22/17 16/13 | eq: -0.069 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.57% (G:16.84% B:1.25%)
61.43% (G:24.48% B:5.54%) | Conf: ± 0.018 (-0.087...-0.051)
Duration: 33 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/14 | eq: -0.139 (-0.070) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.07% (G:16.03% B:1.12%)
62.93% (G:23.96% B:4.81%) | Conf: ± 0.017 (-0.156...-0.122)
Duration: 34 minutes 04 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36438452
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
I struggled with this initially deciding finally hitting is a must. Good, I like when I only have half a roll to play until ... I broke the connection with my back checkers, the biggest weak spot of my game. I can't do anything more offensively than I've already done, Taki has two anchors, I have the rest of the inner board points. I should be concentrating on extricating my back checkers not making plays that aim at doing nothing like making an outer board point.
| is Taki
score: 9
pip: 168 | | 11 point match | pip: 152
score: 1
is Stick |
|
| XGID=-bBBBbB-A---b-AaB-bbbbAB--:0:0:1:31:1:9:0:11:10 |
| to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/15* 14/11 | eq: -0.031 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.81% (G:16.89% B:2.10%)
61.19% (G:24.05% B:5.68%) | Conf: ± 0.026 (-0.057...-0.005)
Duration: 15 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/13 16/15* | eq: -0.242 (-0.212) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.03% (G:14.34% B:1.40%)
64.97% (G:26.18% B:6.43%) | Conf: ± 0.024 (-0.266...-0.218)
Duration: 16 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36438452
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
I was fairly lost OtB on this play as I demonstrated by playing 13, 7. I figured out that anchoring up wasn't necessarily a priority even though I want to escape my back checkers Taki has no ammunition in place to knock me off the front of the prime. After deciding I didn't need to make the rich dummy play of 22, 13 I found the genius play of duplicating twos and preparing to make my bar point which would have some value in hemming in Taki's checkers on the ace point. I'm not going to go into the merits of each play separately but it's easy to see where my play went sour.
| is Taki
score: 9
pip: 183 | | 11 point match | pip: 148
score: 1
is Stick |
|
| XGID=abBBBbB-A---bAAA--bbbbAB--:0:0:1:21:1:9:0:11:10 |
| to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 14/13 8/6 | eq: +0.147 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.71% (G:18.56% B:1.82%)
57.29% (G:18.27% B:2.89%) | Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.135...+0.159)
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/13 14/13 | eq: +0.144 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.06% (G:18.23% B:1.75%)
56.94% (G:18.17% B:2.73%) | Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.132...+0.156)
Duration: 58 minutes 09 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 23/22 15/13 | eq: +0.135 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.07% (G:17.91% B:1.78%)
56.93% (G:19.09% B:3.20%) | Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.123...+0.147)
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 15/13 8/7 | eq: -0.024 (-0.171) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.33% (G:16.44% B:1.78%)
60.67% (G:21.83% B:4.49%) | Conf: ± 0.023 (-0.047...-0.001)
Duration: 17 minutes 29 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36438452
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36438452
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
Proving again I'm laying too much importance on the offensive part of my structure and not realzing how I get wiped off the board by being either attacked or primed if I give up the 17pt now. This play is a chump play.
 
| is Taki
score: 9
pip: 173 | | 11 point match | pip: 120
score: 1
is Stick |
|
| XGID=-bCCC-bB--ab-----BbbbbAA--:1:-1:1:42:1:9:0:11:10 |
| to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/5 7/3 | eq: -0.521 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 20.18% (G:5.97% B:0.44%)
79.82% (G:31.29% B:4.21%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (-0.530...-0.512)
Duration: 19 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 17/13 4/2 | eq: -0.636 (-0.115) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 15.28% (G:4.53% B:0.44%)
84.72% (G:34.20% B:4.98%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.644...-0.628)
Duration: 19 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36438452
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|