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Opening 54, data

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 7 June 2010, at 12:56 a.m.

In Response To: Opening 54 long XG 4 ply RO (neilkaz)


2O ' ' ' '5X '3X ' ' '5O

2X ' ' ' '5O '3O ' ' '5X

Opening 54167


Thanks for the RO, Neil.

Updated data for opening 54:

Money
Snowie .. [S D21 R30] 31k 10kR
GnuBG .. [S D11 R25] 92k 46kR
XG 3-ply [S D3 R25] 67k
XG 4-ply [S D11] 46k

Other scores (GnuBG)
d[S R8 D23] 31k 5kD
s[S R17 D45] 36k 5kD
g[D S20] 15k

Key: S = Split (24/20 13/8), D = Down (13/9 13/8), R = Run (24/15). Error sizes are in thousandths. (Click on nacbracs to see detailed stats for the money rollouts.)

A letter before the brackets denotes score: d = dmp, s = (gammon) save, g = (gammon) go; else assume money. After the brackets is the number of trials (in thousands, rounded down). For example, "g[D S20] 15k" means that at (gammon) go, D is best and S is -.020 after 15000+ trials.

The Snowie rollout on this site, after 15k trials, has the S/D margin at .030, with a 95% confidence it was within .005 or .006 of an infinite-trial result. Yet I had the rollout extended to 31k and the margin narrowed to .021 (as shown above) -- what else is new. (It means the second 15k generated a margin of .012.) I'm in the process of extending that rollout further.

Nack

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