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Extrication - RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 7 June 2010, at 2:26 a.m.

In Response To: Extrication (Daniel Murphy)

I rolled out the top 10 plays; below are the top four. I played 13/8 115/14 too quickly but slowly enough to think "fours plus 3-1 from the 24," which misses the point. Fours play 20/16*, and so we want threes to play 23/20.

Notice that 15/14 13/8 is even worse than 13/8 5/4. That is, I think, because White will play 3-6 bar/16, and Blue has two less shots at the checker from the 14 point.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0 (match to 1 point, post-Crawford play)

Move number 4: Blue to play 51

White	138
Blue	125
Position ID: 7GwLAEZmd4IEIQ Match ID: cIkmAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 15/14 13/8

Alert: bad move ( -0.056)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	24/23 13/8	+0.2364
			0.6182 0.3500 0.0483 - 0.3818 0.1180 0.0116 +0.2364 +0.2364 0.0032 0.0136 0.0071 - 0.0032 0.0101 0.0035 0.0064 0.0064
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			386 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891399068 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/8 5/4	+0.1838 ( -0.0526)
			0.5919 0.3236 0.0428 - 0.4081 0.1316 0.0246 +0.1838 +0.1838 0.0032 0.0143 0.0061 - 0.0032 0.0101 0.0060 0.0064 0.0064
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			385 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891399068 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	R	15/14 13/8	+0.1800 ( -0.0564)
			0.5900 0.3228 0.0371 - 0.4100 0.1123 0.0131 +0.1800 +0.1800 0.0031 0.0135 0.0058 - 0.0031 0.0078 0.0029 0.0062 0.0062
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			385 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891399068 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	24/23 20/15	+0.1786 ( -0.0578)
			0.5893 0.3428 0.0374 - 0.4107 0.1355 0.0139 +0.1786 +0.1786 0.0032 0.0155 0.0060 - 0.0032 0.0095 0.0039 0.0064 0.0064
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			385 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891399068 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

With regard to Jason's recent comment on learning curves and Mary's on balancing play and study in the interview at Phil's site, I note that this is the third position from just one DMP match that I found worthwhile to study some, perform a handful of rollouts, and post here.

Messages In This Thread

• Extrication
  Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 5 June 2010, at 5:03 p.m.
  • Extrication
    Klaus Evers -- Saturday, 5 June 2010, at 9:39 p.m.
  • Extrication
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 5 June 2010, at 9:55 p.m.
  • Extrication
    capecodbob63 -- Saturday, 5 June 2010, at 10:43 p.m.
  • Extrication
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 5 June 2010, at 11:42 p.m.
  • Extrication - RO
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 7 June 2010, at 2:26 a.m.