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cube him to death #2

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 8 June 2010, at 9:05 a.m.

In Response To: cube him to death #2 (Leonardo Jerkovic)

even free drop vs better opponent?

I would think so, absolutely.

Brown's leading 1-away 4-away. He's way behind in this game, so he can drop this cube. Then he's got a free take next game, and if loses that, a DMP game for the match. How much better can this opponent be, who waited until now to double at this score? How much worse than 75% can Brown's ME be leading 1-away 3-away? Suppose if you like that Brown is a 45% dog to win any one game -- he'd still be about a 70% favorite to win one game out of two and the match.

On the other hand, if Brown takes this cube and loses, then the next game's for the match except for the free drop (which is worth a lot more to Brown now, in this position, than it will be after a roll or two or three in the next game). Call this position equivalent to a 7-roll vs. 7-roll position with Creamy winning 2/3 of the time. So then, if Brown takes his ME is ~ 1/3 + 1/2*2/3 = ~67%. Less, against a better opponent.

Clear drop, looks like.

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