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How to count MWC here,and how much i need to re-double?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 8 June 2010, at 3:15 p.m.

In Response To: How to count MWC here,and how much i need to re-double? (Gregory Perel)

Oppt needs 9% to take an 8-cube ATS so you want to be real close to or past 91% winning chances before redoubling. Use Woolsey's rule and ask yourself if the oppt has a take. Blonde has close to a pure 4-roll position with an effective pip count (EPC) of 30 or so. Brunette has a raw pip count of 34 plus around 5 or 6 pips of wastage for an EPC of 39-40. In a money game, brunette could take with an EPC of 31 and would have about 22% cubeless chances. If brunette's EPC was 26, the game would be pick-em. So EPC's from 26-31 are worth close to 5% per pip. The first couple pips beyond 31 are probably worth about 5% each but after that dimishing returns makes each pip worth less than 5%. So if brunette had an EPC of 33, his cubeless chances would probably be around 12%. Since he actually has 39-40, it's clear his chances are well below the 9% he needs to take so R/P.

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