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ROLLOUT

Posted By: Paul Vianna
Date: Tuesday, 8 June 2010, at 5:35 p.m.

In Response To: Tough decision? (Paul Vianna)

As various people have pointed out I missed a monster double on the previous roll. Anyway, I was curious if this particular decision would seem obvious to anybody. It's actually very close:





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 88
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 99
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aB-C--D-BBA---a---bcAbc-c-:1:1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
to play 41

1.Rollout16/2 3/2eq: +0.556
Player:
Opponent:		 63.63% (G:17.59% B:0.73%)
36.37% (G:9.70% B:0.20%)		Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.551...+0.561)
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds
2.Rollout19/5 6/5eq: +0.549 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		 64.06% (G:16.63% B:0.61%)
35.94% (G:9.49% B:0.31%)		Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.544...+0.554)
Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds
3.XG Roller+20/16 10/9eq: +0.354 (-0.202)
Player:
Opponent:		 55.38% (G:5.42% B:0.13%)
44.62% (G:3.74% B:0.05%)
4.1 ply20/15eq: +0.267 (-0.289)
Player:
Opponent:		 54.57% (G:5.48% B:0.11%)
45.43% (G:6.54% B:0.06%)
5.1 ply20/16 9/8eq: +0.172 (-0.384)
Player:
Opponent:		 51.34% (G:5.23% B:0.11%)
48.66% (G:8.17% B:0.11%)
1 Truncated at 8 moves using 1 ply.
1440 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 1 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14

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