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Anchor and prime vs. -- RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 8 June 2010, at 7:42 p.m.

In Response To: Anchor and prime vs. random lucky numbers (Daniel Murphy)

DMP. Blue to play 6-1

White	138
Blue	128
Position ID: bHaDAVDWbsCAAw Match ID: cAknAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 20/13

Another hasty play. Lifting 3/2 is best. Blue gives up most of his 15 or 16 ways to make the 3 point next roll, but only gets hit with 1-2 and 3-2, instead of all threes and 1-2.

But look what the second best play is. Not 20/13 but 20/14 5/4. This picks up a net of one additional cover number over 20/13. White's 2-3 would be unpleasant, but White's 2-1 to enter and hit is duplicated.

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.037)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	20/14 3/2	+0.3192
			0.6596 0.3994 0.0304 - 0.3404 0.1061 0.0168 +0.3192 +0.3192 0.0032 0.0131 0.0051 - 0.0032 0.0097 0.0042 0.0064 0.0064
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			432 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891927966 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	20/14 5/4	+0.2900 ( -0.0292)
			0.6450 0.3772 0.0351 - 0.3550 0.1369 0.0130 +0.2900 +0.2900 0.0028 0.0142 0.0054 - 0.0028 0.0103 0.0030 0.0057 0.0057
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			432 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891927966 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	R	20/13	+0.2818 ( -0.0374)
			0.6409 0.3569 0.0272 - 0.3591 0.1160 0.0165 +0.2818 +0.2818 0.0029 0.0129 0.0052 - 0.0029 0.0090 0.0043 0.0057 0.0057
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			432 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891927966 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Anchor and prime vs. random lucky numbers
  Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 7 June 2010, at 5:26 p.m.
  • Anchor and prime vs. random lucky numbers
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 8 June 2010, at 2:27 a.m.
  • Anchor and prime vs. -- RO
    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 8 June 2010, at 7:42 p.m.