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Failed blitz double action

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 9 June 2010, at 11:55 p.m.

In Response To: Failed blitz double action (Paul Vianna)

This being a money game, White's takepoint is 25% plus half the net g's, plus all the net bg's less recube vig. I'll give Black 22% net g's and maybe 1% net bg's which raises the takepoint to 37%. Assuming 70% efficiency, cube ownership should be worth about 5% lowering the cubeless takepoint to around 32%.

Can White win this often? 30 numbers cover the ace and some of the non-covers put a 3rd man up. Your brittle position means that you'll often have to break your 6-point with the other half of the roll when you enter your last man from the roof. OTOH, your board is strong and an immediate hit might win right away or you might get a playable game by making a 2nd anchor or a point in Black's outfield. The most likely sequence is Black covers the ace and splits off the 21, you enter 1 man, and Black then hits on the 12. This sequence is pretty likely (especially since 61 and 51 hit and cover right away) and is really bad for you.

I don't think you win this 32% of the time, so R/P is my guess.

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