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ROLLOUTS
Posted By: Petter Bengtsson In Response To: Nack vs Grandell (Petter Bengtsson)
Date: Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 5:10 p.m.
Nack played 11/8 8/5, and in Modern Backgammon (page 297) Robertie writes:
"A slight technical error. Better is 11/7, leaving a spare on the 6-point. The actual play gains on 44, but loses on 62, 63 and 64."
Lets call Nack's play A and Robertie's play B.
Here's a table with the equity difference between A and B after the next roll according to XG 5-ply eval. Only rolls where there is a difference are in the table.
Roll Diff(A-B) 44 +0.166 55 +0.105 54 +0.067 66 +0.052 43 +0.041 53 +0.035 51 +0.025 31 +0.020 61 +0.011 33 +0.002 41 -0.007 52 -0.010 64 -0.097 63 -0.110
In his analysis Robertie mentions the two most favorable rolls for play B, the most favorable roll for play A and also a play (62) where there is no equity difference, but he fails to mention several other rolls that are favorable for play A.XG rollouts, 3-ply and 4-ply.
is Player 2
score: 13
pip: 11725 point match pip: 63
score: 5
is Player 1
XGID=cBBBCBC----A-------bbbc-c-:2:-1:1:31:5:13:0:25:10 to play 31
1. Rollout1 11/8 6/5 eq: +2,084
Player:
Opponent:95,99% (G:79,08% B:6,61%)
4,01% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)Conf: ± 0,002 (+2,082...+2,086)
Duration: 15 minutes 43 seconds2. Rollout1 11/7 eq: +2,076 (-0,008)
Player:
Opponent:95,66% (G:78,90% B:6,68%)
4,34% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)Conf: ± 0,002 (+2,074...+2,078)
Duration: 7 minutes 54 seconds3. Rollout1 11/8 4/3 eq: +2,070 (-0,014)
Player:
Opponent:95,89% (G:78,63% B:6,28%)
4,11% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)Conf: ± 0,002 (+2,068...+2,072)
Duration: 5 minutes 28 seconds1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36095669
Moves and cube decisions: 3 plyeXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
1. Rollout1 11/8 6/5 eq: +2,088
Player:
Opponent:96,15% (G:79,19% B:6,38%)
3,85% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)Conf: ± 0,002 (+2,086...+2,090)
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes2. Rollout1 11/7 eq: +2,078 (-0,010)
Player:
Opponent:95,94% (G:78,91% B:6,26%)
4,06% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)Conf: ± 0,002 (+2,076...+2,080)
Duration: 28 minutes 45 seconds3. Rollout1 11/8 4/3 eq: +2,073 (-0,015)
Player:
Opponent:96,17% (G:78,65% B:5,91%)
3,83% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)Conf: ± 0,002 (+2,071...+2,075)
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36095669
Moves and cube decisions: 4 plyeXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
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