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ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Petter Bengtsson
Date: Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 5:10 p.m.

In Response To: Nack vs Grandell (Petter Bengtsson)

Nack played 11/8 8/5, and in Modern Backgammon (page 297) Robertie writes:

"A slight technical error. Better is 11/7, leaving a spare on the 6-point. The actual play gains on 44, but loses on 62, 63 and 64."

Lets call Nack's play A and Robertie's play B.

Here's a table with the equity difference between A and B after the next roll according to XG 5-ply eval. Only rolls where there is a difference are in the table.

RollDiff(A-B)
44+0.166
55+0.105
54+0.067
66+0.052
43+0.041
53+0.035
51+0.025
31+0.020
61+0.011
33+0.002
41-0.007
52-0.010
64-0.097
63-0.110


In his analysis Robertie mentions the two most favorable rolls for play B, the most favorable roll for play A and also a play (62) where there is no equity difference, but he fails to mention several other rolls that are favorable for play A.

XG rollouts, 3-ply and 4-ply.





is Player 2

score: 13
pip: 117
25 point match
pip: 63
score: 5

is Player 1
XGID=cBBBCBC----A-------bbbc-c-:2:-1:1:31:5:13:0:25:10
to play 31

1.Rollout111/8 6/5eq: +2,084
Player:
Opponent:
95,99% (G:79,08% B:6,61%)
4,01% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Conf: ± 0,002 (+2,082...+2,086)
Duration: 15 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout111/7eq: +2,076 (-0,008)
Player:
Opponent:
95,66% (G:78,90% B:6,68%)
4,34% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Conf: ± 0,002 (+2,074...+2,078)
Duration: 7 minutes 54 seconds
3.Rollout111/8 4/3eq: +2,070 (-0,014)
Player:
Opponent:
95,89% (G:78,63% B:6,28%)
4,11% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Conf: ± 0,002 (+2,068...+2,072)
Duration: 5 minutes 28 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36095669
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross


1.Rollout111/8 6/5eq: +2,088
Player:
Opponent:
96,15% (G:79,19% B:6,38%)
3,85% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Conf: ± 0,002 (+2,086...+2,090)
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
2.Rollout111/7eq: +2,078 (-0,010)
Player:
Opponent:
95,94% (G:78,91% B:6,26%)
4,06% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Conf: ± 0,002 (+2,076...+2,080)
Duration: 28 minutes 45 seconds
3.Rollout111/8 4/3eq: +2,073 (-0,015)
Player:
Opponent:
96,17% (G:78,65% B:5,91%)
3,83% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Conf: ± 0,002 (+2,071...+2,075)
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36095669
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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