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Rollout

Posted By: Paul Vianna
Date: Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 6:48 p.m.

In Response To: Failed blitz double action (Paul Vianna)

I posted this for two reasons. First, because I found it difficult to drop this while having a 5-point board and I wanted to see how better players evaluate decisions like this. Second, because XG has a hard time seeing this as a pass - On any evaluation level short of a rollout it evaluates as a take (although only by 0.027 for XGR+). As you can see the position is very volatile and it's hard to narrow the confidence interval enough.

Are there better XG settings for rolling out volatile positions like this?





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 139
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBbBB-----bAa--bbc-B-baB:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 68.21% (G: 31.00% B: 1.21%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.79% (G: 10.16% B: 0.29%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.13% (G: 31.43% B: 0.95%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.87% (G: 9.39% B: 0.32%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.582
Redouble:+1.219
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.875 (-0.125)
Redouble/Take:+1.007 (+0.007)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
57600 Games rolled.
First 3 moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves and Cube Decisions: 1 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.019 (+0.856...+0.893)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.030 (+0.978...+1.037)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 68.8%
Duration: 1 minute 46 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14

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