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Any volunteers to do a longer rollout?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 3:48 p.m.

In Response To: Any volunteers to do a longer rollout? (Leonardo Jerkovic)

Not sure I want to replay my standard rant about "100% confidence" yet again, but the brief version is, it's "100% confident" only that the top play is not tied, and not that the plays differ by a lot. Also the 100% confidence is based on certain assumptions that are often not true. For example did you run the rollout until you got "100% confidence"? Then it's actually considerably less than 100% confidence.

Messages In This Thread

• A fish called Wanda problem
  Leonardo Jerkovic -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 4:54 a.m.
  • A fish called Wanda problem
    garyo -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 6:33 a.m.
  • A fish called Wanda problem
    Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 6:36 a.m.
  • A fish called Wanda problem
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 10:00 a.m.
  • A fish called Wanda problem
    misja -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 11:01 a.m.
  • Why do you call this "a fish called Wanda problem"? *NM*
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 3:11 p.m.
    • Why do you call this "a fish called Wanda problem"?
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 3:29 p.m.
      • Why do you call this "a fish called Wanda problem"?
        Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 4:07 p.m.
  • A fish called Wanda problem - ROLLOUT
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Friday, 11 June 2010, at 5:29 a.m.
    • Any volunteers to do a longer rollout?
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 1:01 a.m.
      • Any volunteers to do a longer rollout?
        Leonardo Jerkovic -- Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 6:33 a.m.
        • Any volunteers to do a longer rollout?
          Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 3:48 p.m.
          • TYVM *NM*
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 4:11 p.m.
      • Any volunteers to do a longer rollout?
        mtuhtan -- Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 7:41 a.m.
      • Any volunteers to do a longer rollout?
        Stick -- Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 8:03 a.m.
        • Any volunteers to do a longer rollout?
          Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 3:45 p.m.
      • Longer rollout - 2,5k trials
        mtuhtan -- Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 8:38 a.m.
        • Longer rollout - 2,5k trials
          Leonardo Jerkovic -- Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 9:11 a.m.
        • Thanks, mtuhtan! *NM*
          Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 3:49 p.m.