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Kauder paradox example from real game

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Monday, 14 June 2010, at 6:16 p.m.

In Response To: Correct to double and correct to beaver (Rich Munitz)

Here is one from one of the games Michael Depreli ran between Snowie and GnuBG

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 76 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 84 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBC----Aa----c-cab-cbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	52.11% (G: 15.97% B: 0.21%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	47.89% (G: 0.97% B: 0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	52.15% (G: 19.33% B: 0.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	47.85% (G: 0.95% B: 0.01%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.042
Double:	+0.461
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	-0.160 (-0.125)
Double/Take:	-0.035
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+1.035)
Best Cube action: Double / Beaver
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.001 (-0.161...-0.158)
Confidence Double:	± 0.005 (-0.040...-0.030)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 26 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.19.139.beta

Messages In This Thread

• Correct to double and correct to beaver
  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 31 July 2009, at 1:05 a.m.
  • Correct to double and correct to beaver
    Petter Bengtsson -- Friday, 31 July 2009, at 1:25 a.m.
    • Correct to double and correct to beaver
      Rich Munitz -- Friday, 31 July 2009, at 4:05 a.m.
      • Jacoby Paradox
        Petter Bengtsson -- Friday, 31 July 2009, at 4:26 a.m.
        • My opinion of the Jacoby Rule is well known
          neilkaz -- Saturday, 1 August 2009, at 12:59 a.m.
      • Correct to double and correct to beaver
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 1 August 2009, at 12:18 a.m.
        • Correct to double and correct to beaver
          Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 5:19 a.m.
          • Correct to double and correct to beaver
            Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 8:34 a.m.
            • Correct to double and correct to beaver
              Petter Bengtsson -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 8:52 a.m.
              • Correct to double and correct to beaver
                Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 9:14 a.m.
              • Correct to double and correct to beaver
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 1:09 p.m.
            • Correct to double and correct to beaver
              Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 3:14 p.m.
              • Correct to double and correct to beaver
                Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 3:31 p.m.
                • Correct to double and correct to beaver
                  Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 5:30 p.m.
              • Correct to double and correct to beaver
                Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 3:47 p.m.
                • Correct to double and correct to beaver
                  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 10:03 p.m.
                  • Correct to double and correct to beaver
                    Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 10:12 p.m.
                    • Correct to double and correct to beaver
                      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 11:17 p.m.
                      • Correct to double and correct to beaver
                        Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 11 June 2010, at 11:52 p.m.
      • Kauder paradox example from real game
        eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 14 June 2010, at 6:16 p.m.
        • Kauder paradox example from real game
          Dorn Bishop -- Monday, 14 June 2010, at 8:52 p.m.
        • Kauder paradox example from real game
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 14 June 2010, at 9:09 p.m.
        • Kauder paradox example from real game
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 14 June 2010, at 9:26 p.m.
          • Kauder paradox example from real game
            Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 14 June 2010, at 9:31 p.m.
  • Correct to double and correct to beaver
    Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 1:02 a.m.
    • Correct to double and correct to beaver
      Seth -- Monday, 14 June 2010, at 4:42 p.m.
      • Correct to double and correct to beaver
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 14 June 2010, at 4:58 p.m.
        • Correct to double and correct to beaver
          Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 14 June 2010, at 5:24 p.m.
      • Correct to double and correct to beaver
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 14 June 2010, at 7:58 p.m.
        • Correct to double and correct to beaver
          Seth -- Monday, 14 June 2010, at 10:57 p.m.
          • Correct to double and correct to beaver
            Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 14 June 2010, at 11:30 p.m.
            • Correct to double and correct to beaver
              Seth -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 2:48 a.m.
              • Correct to double and correct to beaver
                Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 2:52 a.m.
                • Correct to double and correct to beaver
                  Stick -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 3:04 a.m.
                  • Correct to double and correct to beaver
                    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 4:01 a.m.
          • Correct to double and correct to beaver
            Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 1:19 a.m.
            • Correct to -- correction
              Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 2:25 a.m.
          • Correct to double and correct to beaver
            Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 3:41 a.m.