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BGonline.org Forums
prime oozing
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: prime oozing (lenny)
Date: Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 6:10 a.m.
Hey thanks for finding that, Lenny. And elsewhere in that thread are Snowie and JF data, too. We could have some XG data added to that ;-
Seth, elsewhere I said I'd rather play Blue against Mr. Average because Blue is more fun to play. But it occurs to me that I'll win more (and faster) too playing as Blue.
As Blue I rate to win ... let's call it 85% gammonless, to account for the small number of gammons I will lose (recall that I'll lose about 1.5% gammons just from the unfortunate beginning sequences of 6-6 followed by a 6 and 6-X (but not 6-6) followed by 6-6).
Ok? So if I play the Blue side 100 times, I redouble to 4, and win 85*4 - 15*4 = 280 points in 100 games.
What happens if I play 100 games as White instead, against a Blue who lets me win half the time with 20% gammons? Well, if Blue redoubles to 4 right away, I win 30*4 + 20*8 - 50*4 = 80 points in 100 games. If Blue doesn't redouble at all, I only win 40 points in 100 games. I assume Blue will redouble sometime. Whether I take or not depends on the position and how much screw-up vig is left in the game. I guess I'll probably be passing most of the time whenever Blue gets around to doubling. Whenever, though, I can't win as much as I can playing as Blue.
On top of that, I'll be playing the Blue side much faster than Mr. Average will play the Blue side, so I'll win more points per hour, as well as more points per game.
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