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Which side would you prefer in prop position?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 6:52 p.m.

In Response To: Which side would you prefer in prop position? (Stick)

I wrote:

Even if there's only a 2% chance that a position will move towards a type of game that the bot completely fails to understand

Stick wrote:

I think 2% as a guesstimate is way high.

I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I didn't specify any particular position. What I was saying was that, if you have some position—any position—that happens to have the property of having a 2% chance of evolving to a position that the bot completely fails to understand, then I think it has a significant chance of affecting the reliability of a rollout of the position. Certainly such positions exist. In fact there exist positions where the probability is 100%, because the bot already totally misunderstands the position. What I'm saying is that I don't think the probability has to be that high before it will make the rollout result untrustworthy.

In response to Neil's comment: The issue is not how often that weird position arises in world-class play, but how often it arises in the course of a rollout trial. Most of us don't actually manually examine even 2% of the 46K trials that a long rollout produces, so I think we may not have a good feeling for how often such positions show up when the bot plays itself. The bot may go on a blot-hitting spree far more often than a human would.

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