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OTB and RO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 9:06 p.m.

In Response To: -4-2 cube vs O'Hagen in LA (neilkaz)

OTB John thought about taking this but said that he thought he'd lose 20% G's but couldn't win 60% of the games and he passed. When I cubed I was unsure whether it was a take or a pass, but after a while felt that it was probably a tiny pass. The RO says that we overestimated the gammon chances.

Anyhow as we see it would be a huge mistake to not cube this and make things GG and also to give your opp what seems to be a tough decision and a chance to err.

	is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 138 4 point match pip: 142 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-b--B-C-D--BdC---a-bb-bAb-:0:0:1:D:0:2:0:4:10
double to 2 take ?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	62.11% (G: 15.95% B: 1.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	37.89% (G: 14.68% B: 0.70%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	62.04% (G: 16.43% B: 2.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	37.96% (G: 16.00% B: 0.78%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.161
Double:	+0.920
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.777 (-0.141)
Double/Take:	+0.918
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.082)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 87427665 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.012 (+0.765...+0.789)
Confidence Double:	± 0.017 (+0.901...+0.935)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 48 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• -4-2 cube vs O'Hagen in LA
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 13 June 2010, at 6:34 a.m.
  • -4-2 cube vs O'Hagen in LA
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 13 June 2010, at 6:38 a.m.
  • -4-2 cube vs O'Hagen in LA
    Tad Bright -- Sunday, 13 June 2010, at 8:02 a.m.
    • -4-2 cube vs O'Hagen in LA
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 13 June 2010, at 9:03 a.m.
  • OTB and RO
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 9:06 p.m.