BGonline.org Forums

OTB and RO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 9:18 p.m.

In Response To: Real BG -1-3 cube decision (neilkaz)

OTB when Steve cubed this I figured that I probably had to pass and did some quick math to confirm that if lose and many G's as games I win I have to pass. My position here is often going to be a crashed mess and winning as many games as gammons I lose seemed to me to be a tad optimistic so..definate pass for me without further thought.

The reason I titled this Real BG is that things like this happen in real BG. Steve delayed cubing, hoping to get an error from me but fortunately for me, I didn't err. Had I erred and taken this, Steve would have lost nothing by waiting to cube. I do think that high level RO's of the match will show that Steve cost himself some small equity this game by waiting to cube.

Note that XG 3 and 4 ply think this is still a close take whereas XGR and XGR+ think it is a small pass. In reality, the RO shows clear pass. It is very common for the side that is playing from GG in RO's to do better than XG or GNU evaluations... ie if evaluations say borderline T/P it will usually be a drop, often a clear drop.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 147 3 point match pip: 131 score: 2 is Player 1
XGID=-b-CABB-C---cB---bbbbb-B--:0:0:-1:D:2:0:0:3:10
double to 2 take ?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	76.45% (G: 22.51% B: 1.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.55% (G: 7.65% B: 0.71%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76.78% (G: 24.25% B: 3.87%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.22% (G: 8.18% B: 0.93%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.581
Double:	+1.072
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.944 (-0.056)
Double/Take:	+1.072 (+0.072)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 91148719 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.006 (+0.938...+0.951)
Confidence Double:	± 0.010 (+1.062...+1.081)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 30 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Real BG -1-3 cube decision
  neilkaz -- Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 6:53 p.m.
  • Real BG -1-3 cube decision
    lenny -- Sunday, 13 June 2010, at 12:30 a.m.
  • Real BG -1-3 cube decision
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 13 June 2010, at 6:31 a.m.
  • Real BG -1-3 cube decision
    christian munk-christensen -- Sunday, 13 June 2010, at 3:58 p.m.
  • Real BG -1-3 cube decision
    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 13 June 2010, at 4:54 p.m.
  • Real BG -1-3 cube decision
    Grigorij Perel -- Monday, 14 June 2010, at 4:03 a.m.
    • Real BG -1-3 cube decision
      garyo -- Monday, 14 June 2010, at 7:07 a.m.
  • Real BG -1-3 cube decision
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 14 June 2010, at 7:55 a.m.
  • OTB and RO
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 9:18 p.m.