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BGonline.org Forums
A snake's tail end
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: A snake's tail end (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 10:54 p.m.
If 8/4 2/off, what's going on? White will then roll a six 11/36 and 6s average a little > 10 pips each which will take junior to around the 14-point. I think White will then have approx 30% cubeless chances in that position. How about the 25 non-6s? Blue will then be on shake with 11% of his numbers forcing a direct shot, 30% being jokers, and the rest being about average. I'll give White 25%, 3%, and 10% in these 3 categories. That's about 9.65% wins in these 25 games, almost 2.5 wins. That's 5.8 wins in 36 games after the non-hitting play.
How about 8/4, 3/1x? If White then fans, you'll have a 25% chance of re-blotting next time (any 6 but 65) but everything else will cover (mostly by breaking your 5 or 6-point). I'll give White 25%/5% chances if you blot/cover which comes to 10% of these 25 games for 2.5 White wins. How often does White win when he hits? He's a fav on 61 but a clear dog on the others since Blue will have at least 27 ways to enter and hit back (all but 65,64,54,D1,D4,D5). These 11 hitting numbers break down to A)2 where White hits and escapes with 61, B)6.75 where White hits but gets hit back, and C)2.25 where White hits and Blue doesn't hit back. I'll give White 1.2/.675/.6 wins in A/B/C = 2.47 wins in these 11 games. That's ~ 5 wins in 36 games altogether so Blue does better to hit loose.
If the decision were otherwise TCTC, we'd have to look at which play gives White more chances to offer an efficient recube and my guess is that hitting is better in that regard as well.
8/4 3/1x.
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