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64P-63 and 41T-64P-63

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 6:58 p.m.

In Response To: 52S-64P-43 -- bot content (neilkaz)

In contrast to running 63 after an opening 64P, we are 5 pips further ahead with a checker moved from 13/8. This may be enough to make 22/15 better than 22/18 13/10.

Most definitely. Averaging Snowie and Gnu, 64P-63 is [S R13]. If the position is adjusted to 41T-64P-63 (giving us the same end position as 52S-64P-43 for the two candidate plays you mention), R should easily do better than S. The diagrams below help illustrate.

64P-63: S is .013 better than R

41T-64P-63: R must be easily better than S

In support, here is one example. Consider the two old rollouts below, both by Snowie (and no live cube, in order to compare apples to apples):

Opn 64 [P S6 R9] 54k
41T+64 [P R18 S40] 10k

The rollout results of those two positions, which are diagrammed below for reference, show an S/R swing of .025. (Ignore P.) In the position pair above, with Opp owning the 2pt, I'm sure the swing is even greater.

Opening 64: S beats R by .003 (Snw RO)

41T+64: R beats S by .022 (Snw RO)

Key: R = Run (24/15 for 63, or 24/14 for 64). S = Split (24/18 13/10 for 63, or 24/18 13/9 for 64). P = Point (8/2 6/2). T = sTack/Tower (13/8).

It is also instructive to see how much the opening plays change when the opponent is spotted a fourth checker on her 8pt: in other words, the replies to opening 41T (sTack, 13/8). Paul Weaver rolled out most of them in the early 2000s and I still have the data.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• 52S-64P-43?
  Stick -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 11:12 p.m.
  • 52S-64P-43?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 11:28 p.m.
  • 52S-64P-43?
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 12:31 a.m.
  • 52S-64P-43?
    Paul Weaver -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 12:48 a.m.
  • 52S-64P-43 -- bot content
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 8:25 a.m.
    • 52S-64P-43 -- bot content
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 3:01 p.m.
    • 52S-64P-43 -- bot content
      Stick -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 4:13 p.m.
      • 52S-64P-43 -- bot content
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 5:31 p.m.
        • 64P-63 and 41T-64P-63
          Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 6:58 p.m.
    • 52S-64P-43 -- bot content
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 5:28 p.m.
  • 52S-64P-43?
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 4:10 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Thursday, 17 June 2010, at 7:55 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 17 June 2010, at 8:52 p.m.
      • Rollout
        Stick -- Thursday, 17 June 2010, at 8:59 p.m.
        • Rollout
          Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 17 June 2010, at 11:58 p.m.